Free Picks: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

Drew Lock is coming off his best game of the year and will try to keep the momentum swinging in the Broncos’ favour, but it’s a daunting task to accomplish against the Buffalo Bills, who are looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. 888sport has the Bills as -6.5 road favourites.

Let me just start this preview by saying that the Denver Broncos are not a good football team, but I was wrong in last week’s preview when I predicted that their game against the Carolina Panthers would end up being low scoring.  Drew Lock ended up having the game of his life, as he threw four passing touchdowns.

Now, anything is possible, but we must not forget that Drew Lock has been mediocre all year apart from that game.  The Buffalo Bills are a fantastic team and should easily take care of these pesky Broncos, but it’s well-documented how difficult playing in Denver is.

Denver is 5-1 SU in their last six games at home against Buffalo, and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver’s last 7 games at home.

The Bills performed admirably last week as they handed the Pittsburgh Steelers their second consecutive loss.  Josh Allen had a good game where he threw for two touchdowns, and he’s developed a special connection with Stefon Diggs, who looked out-of-sorts in Minnesota last year.

Still, the Broncos are unpredictable.  I can almost envision the Bills marching into Mile High Stadium and slapping around the Broncos, but I’m more inclined to take the safer bet and bank on the UNDER hitting, which 888sport has set at 50 points (-108).

Sure, the Bills are a high-scoring team, but there isn’t much betting value to be found on their side, and am I really going to trust the Broncos to cover the point spread or make this a high-scoring game?

Honestly, I’m not at all interested in those best. Smash the UNDER, everybody.

• Denver is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games against Buffalo
• The UNDER has cashed in 4 of Denver’s last 5 games
• Buffalo is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Denver
• The UNDER has cashed in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games against an AFC opponent