Free Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Kevin Luna
Kevin Luna
NFL Free Picks - Best Bets of the Week
NFL Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, NFL, Arrowhead Stadium

The 4-7 Denver Broncos will travel to Kansas City in Week 13, where they look to avenge their Week 7 loss to the Chiefs.  Amid quarterback issues and poor offensive play calling, the Broncos enter this contest as +13.5 road underdogs (888sport -110) against their AFC West rivals

Chiefs buck the Broncos

The hottest story coming out of Week 12 was Tyreek Hill’s jaw-dropping performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The two-time All-Pro torched the Bucs’ defense for 269 yards and three touchdowns.

This week the reigning champs get a home date against the hapless Denver Broncos, whom they had their way with back in Week 7 when they slaughtered them 43-16.  The 4-7 Broncos have been able to eke out wins against lesser competition, but they don’t stand a chance against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who look poised to represent the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl for a consecutive year.

Denver ranks tenth overall in opponent yards per game at 341.4, so their defense is capable of slowing down teams, but it’s a daunting task to accomplish when facing the Chiefs.  They currently rank third in points per game at 31.6 and second in first downs per game at 25, while the Broncos rank second-last in both categories, at 19.0 and 18.2, respectively.

In terms of offense, these teams are opposites.  The Chiefs can score practically at will, while the Broncos struggle to generate any kind of offense.

Kansas City and Denver had the same ATS record in their last 11 games, at 6-5 each, but head-to-head, the Broncos have only covered the spread against their AFC West rivals just once in their previous ten games and have straight up lost all ten.

I make a conscious effort to avoid betting on games with large point spreads like this one where 888sport has the Chiefs as massive -13.5 home favourites (-110), but the Broncos are awful even at full strength.  Drew Lock wasn’t playing well, and every other quarterback on their roster is ineligible due to COVID-19 related issues.

With mediocre-to-bad quarterback play and a putrid overall offense, the stage is set for a ruthless blowout at Arrowhead in Week 13.

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  • Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against Denver
  • The UNDER has cashed in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games against Denver
  • Denver is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Denver is 4-11 SU in their last 15 games on the road

Kevin Luna is passionate about sports and specializes in the NBA and NFL. He provides useful information for online sports bettors, and casual fans looking for quality content. Although he lives in Toronto, he's more of a Celtics guy than a Raptors fan, but he still roots for the home team too