Free Picks: New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams

Patriots at Rams NFL Week 14
New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams, SoFi Stadium

The last time the Patriots and Rams faced each other was the snooze-worthy Super Bowl LIII, which New England won, 13-3. A lot has changed since then: future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady flew south to Tampa Bay, while running back Todd Gurley now plays in Atlanta. Now, the Patriots are in a fight to reach the playoffs, while the Rams — in the hunt for an NFC West title — appear comfortably on their way.

For the Patriots and Rams, points should be at a premium

In the past two weeks, we’ve seen both sides of Jared Goff. In Week 12, he looked totally out of sorts against the 49ers, committing three turnovers and failing to throw or run for any touchdowns. Then in Week 13, Goff torched the Cardinals for 351 yards and two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing). The Rams have the third-ranked offense for a reason, and he’s certainly at the center of that.

But the consistency lacks for Goff. The same is true for their upcoming opponent, the Patriots, who had one of the weirdest blowout victories a box score could display in their 45-0 drubbing of the Chargers last week.

Did you konw the Patriots only had 291 yards in that game, including just 126 passing yards? Yes, the score allowed them to ease off the gas pedal, but it’s been evident all year that they don’t have many offensive playmakers.

That’s why the over/under line of 45.5 points for this matchup on various betting sites is worth a look. This is a game that appears on track to hit the under (-111 at 888Sport), given the recent track record of both teams. Seven of the Patriots’ past nine games have hit the under, including four in a row. The Rams’ game hit the over this past week, but they’ve seen the under win out in seven of their past nine matchups as well.

Both defenses are potent, but the Rams have a particularly strong group. As a unit, they rank top-five in the NFL in rushing yards, pass yards, total yards and points allowed — as well as turnovers forced. For that reason, we’ll put our confidence in the Rams to cover a 6.5-point spread (-102 at 888Sport) as displayed on the latest NFL odds.

Stats

  • New England is 5-5 ATS in its past 10
  • The UNDER has cashed in seven of the Patriots’’ past nine games
  • Los Angeles is 5-5 ATS in its past 10 games
  • The UNDER has cashed in seven of the Rams’ past nine games

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Jordan Horrobin is a freelance sports journalist based in Toronto, Ontario, who enjoys sports-related research and telling engaging stories. His work can also be found at Sportsnet, Forbes and elsewhere. Though he abandoned most of his team-specific fandoms in the interest of unbiased analysis, Jordan roots hard for his fantasy football/hockey teams (and he's a complete homer for all things Ohio University). You can follow Jordan on Twitter at @JordanHorrobin

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