Free Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are rolling into Week 11 with the league’s only undefeated record.  They have a sweet matchup against a Jaguars team that’s dropped their last eight consecutive games, and only have one win on the season.  Oddsmakers have the black and yellow gang as big road favourites, with 888sport setting the point spread at -10.0 (-110).

The Pittsburgh Steelers are probably the best team in the NFL right now.  Sure, they’ve had a favourable schedule so far but being undefeated after ten weeks is no easy feat no matter who they’ve faced.

The Steelers are pretty good on offense, as they’re currently fifth in total points per game, but their real claim to fame this season is their defense which ranks first overall.  They have the second-highest pass rush win rate at 55%, which features outstanding outside linebacker, TJ Watt, who is the league’s best edge rusher with a win rate of 32%.  They also lead the league in total sacks with 36 on the season.

Steel Curtain, indeed. This does not bode well for the lowly Jaguars who already have a rookie quarterback in Jake Luton controlling the offense.

He did alright in his first NFL start against the Houston Texans back in Week 9 throwing for 304 yards and a score, but was abysmal last week at Green Bay where he was sacked 3 times and only threw for 169 yards, with a pass completion of 51%.

All the signs are pointing to an easy Steeler’s victory, but will they really extend their winning streak to 10 games?

There’s no doubt that the Steelers are playing great football right now.  They’re undefeated this season, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, and boast the league’s best defense, hands-down.

The Jaguars are bottom-feeders but it may surprise you to know that Pittsburgh is only 3-6-1 ATS against Jacksonville in their last 10 meetings, and the Jags actually own the straight-up record over the same time span at 6-4.  For even more perspective, the Steelers are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games against the Jaguars.

The Steelers are red-hot right now, but based on historical outcomes, the Jags seem to have an edge on the Steelers recently.  I’m comfortable taking Jacksonville to cover the +10.0 points at home. (-110).

• Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games against Jacksonville
• The UNDER has cashed in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 10 games against Jacksonville
• Jacksonville is 6-4 in their last 10 games against Pittsburgh
• The UNDER has cashed in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 5 games against Pittsburgh