Free Picks Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC’s road to the Super Bowl will likely run through Kansas City, and the Chiefs (13-1) can make sure of that if they beat the Falcons (4-10) this week. With a propensity for one-score losses, however, the Falcons could pose as a tough foe against the spread. Atlanta has lost by a touchdown or less in three straight weeks, and seven times overall this season.

The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, the ones who boast an MVP frontrunner at quarterback and have the best record in the NFL, are not often associated with losing streaks.

But in the betting world, the Chiefs’ story has been a little less sparkling of late, given that from Weeks 9-14 (including a bye) they failed to cover five consecutive spreads. Kansas City did rebound with a narrow 0.5-point cover over the Saints last week to halt their skid, but it’s still a trend to follow.

This week, the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites (-109 at 888Sport) on various betting sites in their matchup with the Falcons. Last week, Atlanta blew a 24-7 lead against the Buccaneers, but still managed to cover as 6-point underdogs.

What’s interesting is that last week’s 6-point spread was the largest the Falcons have faced this year. Oddsmakers know they have a knack for hanging around in games, despite their 4-10 record straight up. From Week 5 onward, five of Atlanta’s six losses have come by seven points or fewer.

So that’s why this is a tricky line to toe. Kansas City looks unbeatable right now, and we’d highly recommend you taking them on the moneyline (-500 at 888Sport), but the value is minimal in that regard. With the spread as it currently stands, the Falcons are who we advise you to roll with.

And that pick will feel even better if Atlanta receiver Julio Jones (questionable, hamstring) is able to return after missing three of the past four games. The Falcons don’t have any particular reason to rush Jones back to action, but he has stated previously that he “has no plans” to shut down for the season — and he was spotted doing side work during Wednesday’s practice.

• Atlanta is 5-5 ATS in its past 10 games
• The UNDER has cashed in seven of the Falcons’ past 10 games
• Kansas City is 4-6 ATS in its past 10 games
• The OVER has cashed in six of the Chiefs’ past 10 games