Free Picks Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jordan Horrobin
By: Jordan Horrobin
12/27/2020
NFL Free Picks - Best Bets of the Week
Falcons at Chiefs NFL
Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, Arrowhead Stadium

The AFC’s road to the Super Bowl will likely run through Kansas City, and the Chiefs (13-1) can make sure of that if they beat the Falcons (4-10) this week. With a propensity for one-score losses, however, the Falcons could pose as a tough foe against the spread. Atlanta has lost by a touchdown or less in three straight weeks, and seven times overall this season.

Chiefs snapped ATS cold streak last week, now they’re looking for more

The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, the ones who boast an MVP frontrunner at quarterback and have the best record in the NFL, are not often associated with losing streaks.

But in the betting world, the Chiefs’ story has been a little less sparkling of late, given that from Weeks 9-14 (including a bye) they failed to cover five consecutive spreads. Kansas City did rebound with a narrow 0.5-point cover over the Saints last week to halt their skid, but it’s still a trend to follow.

This week, the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites (-109 at 888Sport) on various betting sites in their matchup with the Falcons. Last week, Atlanta blew a 24-7 lead against the Buccaneers, but still managed to cover as 6-point underdogs.

What’s interesting is that last week’s 6-point spread was the largest the Falcons have faced this year. Oddsmakers know they have a knack for hanging around in games, despite their 4-10 record straight up. From Week 5 onward, five of Atlanta’s six losses have come by seven points or fewer.

So that’s why this is a tricky line to toe. Kansas City looks unbeatable right now, and we’d highly recommend you taking them on the moneyline (-500 at 888Sport), but the value is minimal in that regard. With the spread as it currently stands, the Falcons are who we advise you to roll with.

And that pick will feel even better if Atlanta receiver Julio Jones (questionable, hamstring) is able to return after missing three of the past four games. The Falcons don’t have any particular reason to rush Jones back to action, but he has stated previously that he “has no plans” to shut down for the season — and he was spotted doing side work during Wednesday’s practice.

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FREE PICK: FALCONS +10.5 POINTS
-109

Stats

  • Atlanta is 5-5 ATS in its past 10 games
  • The UNDER has cashed in seven of the Falcons’ past 10 games
  • Kansas City is 4-6 ATS in its past 10 games
  • The OVER has cashed in six of the Chiefs’ past 10 games

Jordan Horrobin is a freelance sports journalist based in Toronto, Ontario, who enjoys sports-related research and telling engaging stories. His work can also be found at Sportsnet, Forbes and elsewhere. Though he abandoned most of his team-specific fandoms in the interest of unbiased analysis, Jordan roots hard for his fantasy football/hockey teams (and he's a complete homer for all things Ohio University).

NFC Standings

TeamWLPCT
1Packers1340.765
2Buccaneers1340.765
3Cowboys1250.706
4Rams1250.706
5Cardinals1160.647
649ers1070.588
7Eagles980.529
8Saints980.529

 

AFC Standings

TeamWLPCT
1Titans1250.706
2Chiefs1250.706
3Bill1160.647
4Bengals1070.588
5Patriots1070.588
6Chargers970.563
7Raiders970.563
8Steelers970.559

Key Dates

2021-22 Season
Training camps beginJuly 27
Preseason debutAugust 12
Regular season beginsSeptember 9
Trading deadlineNovember 2
Regular season endsJanuary 9
Wild CardJanuary 15
Divisional RoundJanuary 22
Conference ChampionshipJanuary 30
Pro BowlFebruary 6
Super BowlFebruary 13