Free Picks: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are red-hot following a 38-9 demolition of the New England Patriots in Week 16. They’re playing for seeding, while the Miami Dolphins look to secure their first playoff berth since 2016 with a win.  The Bills are -2 home favourites (888sport +106).

The Buffalo Bills look like the real deal.  The New England Patriots are not a good team, but the Bills destroyed them in Week 16 and are looking to clinch the number two seed in the AFC with a win against the Miami Dolphins in the season’s final game.

The Kansas City Chiefs have already secured the number one seed and a first-round bye, so it’s out of reach for the Buffalo Bills at this point since the NFL revised the playoff format to seven teams, with only the top seed in each conference earning a first-round bye.  It wouldn’t make a lot of sense for the Bills to risk injuring their starters for the number two seed, so I expect the Dolphins to win this one on the Bills home turf since they need a win to lock up a playoff spot.

The Dolphins have looked good all year and remain one of the most underrated teams, going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.  Tua Tagovailoa was pulled in the fourth quarter last week against the Las Vegas Raiders after looking shaky all game, but he’ll start for the Dolphins in Week 17.

The Bills are 7-3 in their previous ten meetings against the Dolphins, but the odds are that Sean McDermott sits his starters in Week 17.  At the very least, he should sit Josh Allen, which will shift the odds in favour of the Dolphins.

They’re on the road, but it’s do or die for the Dolphins if they want to make the playoffs

• Miami is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games
• Miami is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games
• Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against an AFC East opponent
• The OVER has cashed 10 of Buffalo’s last 15 games