Free Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins

Kansas City (11-1) looks like a solid straight up play every week — but against the spread is a different story. On Sunday, they’ll face a Miami (8-4) team that has fared particularly well against the spread, thanks to impressive showings on defense and a solid offensive effort. Can Patrick Mahomes do enough through the air to overwhelm the Dolphins, and keep the Chiefs unbeaten on the road?

If you play fantasy football, there’s an excellent chance you’ve enjoyed (or been tormented by) Patrick Mahomes’ connection with receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce this season. All three players are on their way to Pro Bowl seasons, as they were this time last year.

As a result, the Chiefs possess the top total offense in the NFL (427.6 yards/game), the top passing offense (314.4 yards/game) and the second highest scoring offense (30.8 points/game). Seems like a tough bunch to bet against, right?

Perhaps, but only in a straight up fashion. Against the spread, Kansas City often struggles to keep up with the expectations of betting sites. That’s why, despite averaging 29.3 points per game the past four weeks, they’ve failed to cover any of those games.

The Dolphins, on the flip side, have covered in seven of their past eight — and we expect them to do it again as 7-point underdogs (-108 at 888 Sport). Miami will counter the Chiefs’ No. 2 scoring offense with their No. 2 scoring defense (17.7 points/game), which has allowed just one score in both of its past two games. That has led to the under hitting easily (by double digts) in three consecutive Miami games.

Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is still working out kinks in his game, but he has a solid safety valve in tight end Mike Gesicki (50 yards/game since Week 9) and will hopefully have a fully healthy Myles Gaskin in the backfield.

Understand that we’re not saying the Dolphins have the upper hand to win this matchup. Betting on them on the moneyline (+275 at 888Sport), while potentially lucrative, is ill-advised. These are the 11-1, title-defending Chiefs we’re talking about here.

But Kansas City’s ability to win hasn’t aligned with an ability to cover. Use that trend to your advantage.

• Kansas City is 5-5 ATS in its past 10
• The UNDER has cashed in six of the Chiefs’ past 10 games
• Miami is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games
• The UNDER has cashed in seven of the Dolphins’ past 10 games