Free Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins

Jordan Horrobin
By: Jordan Horrobin
12/13/2020
NFL Free Picks - Best Bets of the Week
Chiefs at Dolphins NFL Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins, Hard Rock Stadium

Kansas City (11-1) looks like a solid straight up play every week — but against the spread is a different story. On Sunday, they’ll face a Miami (8-4) team that has fared particularly well against the spread, thanks to impressive showings on defense and a solid offensive effort. Can Patrick Mahomes do enough through the air to overwhelm the Dolphins, and keep the Chiefs unbeaten on the road?

Can Chiefs, Mahomes outscore spread against plucky Dolphins?

If you play fantasy football, there’s an excellent chance you’ve enjoyed (or been tormented by) Patrick Mahomes’ connection with receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce this season. All three players are on their way to Pro Bowl seasons, as they were this time last year.

As a result, the Chiefs possess the top total offense in the NFL (427.6 yards/game), the top passing offense (314.4 yards/game) and the second highest scoring offense (30.8 points/game). Seems like a tough bunch to bet against, right?

Perhaps, but only in a straight up fashion. Against the spread, Kansas City often struggles to keep up with the expectations of betting sites. That’s why, despite averaging 29.3 points per game the past four weeks, they’ve failed to cover any of those games.

The Dolphins, on the flip side, have covered in seven of their past eight — and we expect them to do it again as 7-point underdogs (-108 at 888 Sport). Miami will counter the Chiefs’ No. 2 scoring offense with their No. 2 scoring defense (17.7 points/game), which has allowed just one score in both of its past two games. That has led to the under hitting easily (by double digts) in three consecutive Miami games.

Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is still working out kinks in his game, but he has a solid safety valve in tight end Mike Gesicki (50 yards/game since Week 9) and will hopefully have a fully healthy Myles Gaskin in the backfield.

Understand that we’re not saying the Dolphins have the upper hand to win this matchup. Betting on them on the moneyline (+275 at 888Sport), while potentially lucrative, is ill-advised. These are the 11-1, title-defending Chiefs we’re talking about here.

But Kansas City’s ability to win hasn’t aligned with an ability to cover. Use that trend to your advantage.

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FREE PICK: DOLPHINS TO COVER +7
-108

Stats

  • Kansas City is 5-5 ATS in its past 10
  • The UNDER has cashed in six of the Chiefs’ past 10 games
  • Miami is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games
  • The UNDER has cashed in seven of the Dolphins’ past 10 games

Jordan Horrobin is a freelance sports journalist based in Toronto, Ontario, who enjoys sports-related research and telling engaging stories. His work can also be found at Sportsnet, Forbes and elsewhere. Though he abandoned most of his team-specific fandoms in the interest of unbiased analysis, Jordan roots hard for his fantasy football/hockey teams (and he's a complete homer for all things Ohio University).

NFC Standings

TeamWLPCT
1Packers1340.765
2Buccaneers1340.765
3Cowboys1250.706
4Rams1250.706
5Cardinals1160.647
649ers1070.588
7Eagles980.529
8Saints980.529

 

AFC Standings

TeamWLPCT
1Titans1250.706
2Chiefs1250.706
3Bill1160.647
4Bengals1070.588
5Patriots1070.588
6Chargers970.563
7Raiders970.563
8Steelers970.559

Key Dates

2021-22 Season
Training camps beginJuly 27
Preseason debutAugust 12
Regular season beginsSeptember 9
Trading deadlineNovember 2
Regular season endsJanuary 9
Wild CardJanuary 15
Divisional RoundJanuary 22
Conference ChampionshipJanuary 30
Pro BowlFebruary 6
Super BowlFebruary 13