Free Picks Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens - NFL Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens, NFL, Bills Stadium

The Buffalo Bills (14-3) nabbed their first playoff win since ’95 last week, and now have a chance to compete for a conference title for the first time since their four consecutive Super Bowl losses in the early 90s. On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens (12-5) ran through the Tennessee Titans on the road last week, and Lamar Jackson is looking every bit like the player who won NFL MVP last season.

Bills, Ravens enter divisional round as NFL’s hottest teams

If an unstoppable force were to meet an immovable object, which one would you bet on to win?

OK, that’s not exactly what this week’s Ravens vs. Bills matchup will be, but it’s as close of a comparison as we can make ahead of a matchup featuring the NFL’s two hottest teams. Baltimore has won six in a row straight up, and seven in a row against the spread; Buffalo has won seven in a row straight up, and eight of nine ATS.

As such, this is a tricky matchup for oddsmakers to project. Buffalo, playing at home, is sitting as 2.5-point favorites (-120 at Betway) on various betting sites. On the money line, the Bills are -145 favorites (Betway).

Given how successful both teams have been lately, this game is as much of a coin flip as any that has been played in these playoffs so far. With that said, bettors should seek to maximize value on their bets, with the understanding that anything can happen.

For those who are high on the Bills, who are 8-1 at home, taking the 2.5-point spread provides a better payout. But for fans of the Ravens, who are averaging 260 rush yards per game (and 6.7 rush yards/carry) in the past six weeks, a money line approach makes more sense.

We like the Ravens in straight up fashion (+125 at Betway) because they are playing like a literal runaway freight train. Last week, they sat a healthy Mark Ingram because they simply didn’t have use for him. A three-headed monster of Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards has proven to be enough.

Buffalo’s run defense is average at best (17th in yards allowed, 26th in yards per attempt). A concern for Baltimore is that playing from behind could be an issue. But the Ravens fell behind last week in Tennessee and found a way to come back.

Maybe you steer clear of betting on this game because it’s such a toss-up. Maybe you go with the run-heavy Ravens. Either way, enjoy a battle between two of the league’s best.

Stats

  • Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games
  • The OVER has cashed in seven of the Bills’ past 10 games
  • Baltimore is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games
  • The UNDER has cashed in six of the Ravens’ past 10 games

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Jordan Horrobin is a freelance sports journalist based in Toronto, Ontario, who enjoys sports-related research and telling engaging stories. His work can also be found at Sportsnet, Forbes and elsewhere. Though he abandoned most of his team-specific fandoms in the interest of unbiased analysis, Jordan roots hard for his fantasy football/hockey teams (and he's a complete homer for all things Ohio University). You can follow Jordan on Twitter at @JordanHorrobin

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