Free Picks: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers

On Saturday night, the Oilers took a 3-1 lead into the third period against the Maple Leafs, but that lead didn’t hold up. The Leafs scored two goals to tie the game in regulation and Auston Matthews won it in overtime on a lucky bounce. Down 6-1-1 in the season series, the Oilers are due. This Monday clash will be the last of the head-to-head meetings between these two playoff-bound teams.

For my BetPicks free picks, I think the Oilers will rebound. Going into Saturday’s game, they hadn’t played in a week because three of their games against the Montreal Canadiens were postponed after two Montreal players entered the Covid protocol, so there was some rust.

The safest bet, suggested by the implied odds (-183) with 10Bet is to take Edmonton (+1.5) (-183) to cover, and I like that bet. I’m going to take the Over (6.5) (-117) with 10Bet because I think the Oilers come out with guns blazing. And I think Edmonton turns the tide on Toronto, so I’m taking the Oilers on the MoneyLine (+130) with 10Bet, even though that is a riskier play.

When I go about making my NHL picks, I look at a few things, and I just can’t see the Leafs holding the league’s best player, Connor McDavid, scoreless again, although McDavid collected a couple of assists on Saturday. Auston Matthews got the winner in overtime on Saturday. It was the second time in this season series that Matthews has scored the winning goal.

When I’m making my NHL predictions, I look at the goaltenders. The Leafs are without their injured No. 1 goalie, Frederik Andersen, but Jack Campbell backstopped the Leafs to their third straight win on Saturday despite a lackluster .850 save percentage. He himself admitted he didn’t have a great night.

But overall, Campbell has a 6-0-0 record, a .945 save percentage and 2 shutouts. The Oilers are expected to go with Mike Smith again. Smith had a substandard .871 save percentage in Saturday’s loss.

The Leafs are favorites for these  NHL game odds and for good reason because of their 6-2 advantage in head-to-head meetings. Edmonton has outshot Toronto in all but 3 games. Toronto has held the shot advantage in the past 2 games. But I’m betting the Oilers start converting their shots into more goals.

• The Oilers are 6-7-1 on the Over/Under on the road.
• Toronto is 8-9-1 on the Over/Under at home.
• Edmonton is 7-2 SU in their last 9.
• The total has gone Over in 6 of Edmonton’s last 7 when playing as the underdog.