Free Picks: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers

By: Curtis Rush
03/29/2021
NHL Free Picks – Best Bets of the Week
Maple Leafs vs Oilers NHL
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Scotiabank Arena

On Saturday night, the Oilers took a 3-1 lead into the third period against the Maple Leafs, but that lead didn’t hold up. The Leafs scored two goals to tie the game in regulation and Auston Matthews won it in overtime on a lucky bounce. Down 6-1-1 in the season series, the Oilers are due. This Monday clash will be the last of the head-to-head meetings between these two playoff-bound teams.

Showdown in the North

For my BetPicks free picks, I think the Oilers will rebound. Going into Saturday’s game, they hadn’t played in a week because three of their games against the Montreal Canadiens were postponed after two Montreal players entered the Covid protocol, so there was some rust.

The safest bet, suggested by the implied odds (-183) with 10Bet is to take Edmonton (+1.5) (-183) to cover, and I like that bet. I’m going to take the Over (6.5) (-117) with 10Bet because I think the Oilers come out with guns blazing. And I think Edmonton turns the tide on Toronto, so I’m taking the Oilers on the MoneyLine (+130) with 10Bet, even though that is a riskier play.

When I go about making my NHL picks, I look at a few things, and I just can’t see the Leafs holding the league’s best player, Connor McDavid, scoreless again, although McDavid collected a couple of assists on Saturday. Auston Matthews got the winner in overtime on Saturday. It was the second time in this season series that Matthews has scored the winning goal.

When I’m making my NHL predictions, I look at the goaltenders. The Leafs are without their injured No. 1 goalie, Frederik Andersen, but Jack Campbell backstopped the Leafs to their third straight win on Saturday despite a lackluster .850 save percentage. He himself admitted he didn’t have a great night.

But overall, Campbell has a 6-0-0 record, a .945 save percentage and 2 shutouts. The Oilers are expected to go with Mike Smith again. Smith had a substandard .871 save percentage in Saturday’s loss.

The Leafs are favorites for these  NHL game odds and for good reason because of their 6-2 advantage in head-to-head meetings. Edmonton has outshot Toronto in all but 3 games. Toronto has held the shot advantage in the past 2 games. But I’m betting the Oilers start converting their shots into more goals.

10bet review
FREE PICK: THE EDMONTON OILERS TO WIN MONEY LINE
+130

Stats

  • The Oilers are 6-7-1 on the Over/Under on the road.
  • Toronto is 8-9-1 on the Over/Under at home.
  • Edmonton is 7-2 SU in their last 9.
  • The total has gone Over in 6 of Edmonton’s last 7 when playing as the underdog.

I live in the land of ice and snow in Toronto, Canada's largest city. I can't skate very well, but I know sports, especially hockey, after a long career writing about the Toronto Maple Leafs and other teams at the country's largest newspaper, the Toronto Star. Betting on sports can be a rewarding experience when you understand the trends and underlying characteristics of the teams and players before laying down a bet. That's how I hope to point you in the right direction.

NHL Eastern Metropolitan

 

TeamWLOT%
1Carolina54208.707
2NY Rangers52246.671
3Pittsburgh462511.628
4Washington442612.610
5NY Islanders373510.512
6Columbus37387.494
7New Jersey27469.384
8Philadelphia254611.372

 

NHL Eastern Atlantic

TeamWLOT%
1Florida58186.744
2Toronto54217.701
3Tampa Bay51238.671
4Boston51265.652
5Buffalo323911.457
6Detroit324010.451
7Ottawa33427.445
8Montréal224911.335

 

NHL - Western Central

TeamWLOT%
1Colorado56197.726
2Minnesota53227.689
3St Louis492211.665
4Dallas46306.598
5Nashville45307.591
6Winnipeg393211.543
7Chicago284212.415
8Arizona25507.348

 

NHL - Western Pacific

TeamWLOT%
1Calgary502111.677
2Edmonton49276.634
3Los Angeles442711.604
4Vegas43318.573
5Vancouver403012.561
6San Jose323713.470
7Anaheim313714.463
8Seattle27496.366

 

2021-22 Season
Regular season beginsOctober 12
All-Star & Winter Games breakFebruary 3-22
Trade deadlineMarch 21
Final day of regular seasonApril 29
Stanley Cup Playoffs beginMay 2
Last possible day for PlayoffsJune 30
2022 NHL DraftJuly 7