Free Picks: Boston Bruins vs. New York Islanders

When you think about the Boston Bruins and New York Islanders, one thing comes to mind: Defense. Despite being gifted on defense, I think we see a high-scoring game on Thursday night. The offensively talented Boston Bruins may need to do the heavy lifting to reach the over, but there is a method to my madness. New York has slapped Boston with 4 goals already this season. Can their offense continue to roll?

The Boston Bruins and New York Islanders have made a name for themselves this season after their defensive play. Boston has allowed a staggering 36 goals this season, good for 3rd in the NHL. Meanwhile, New York has allowed 43 goals this season, good for 9th in the NHL.

Of course, seeing these defensive stats has dramatically impacted NHL game odds. Looking at the totals, the O/U for Thursday’s contest is 4.5.

The Bruins and Islanders have met in the regular season twice already. The first contest ended in a 1-0 victory for New York. A few weeks later, the Islanders would drop Boston again, this time by a score of 4-2.

Statistically speaking, a 3-2 margin of victory is one of the most common goal totals in NHL history. A 3-2 victory is more common than a 2-1 victory by nearly 3%. On top of that, a 4-2 victory is the second most common finalized score in NHL. To be fair, this statistic comes from 2018, but we can extrapolate data and believe that the numbers have not changed too much in 2021.

What am I getting at with this? Well, I think under 4.5 is a low total for this game. Despite being terrific on defensive, statistically, a final score of under 4 has less of a probability than being over 5.

I don’t think it comes as a surprise that Boston dominates the NHL regular season odds, currently at -133 on the Moneyline.

New York’s offense isn’t threatening, I understand that. But Boston’s offense should be able to do the majority of the work. Needing just 5 goals to reach the over, I am banking on Boston scoring 3 of the 5 goals needed. The Bruins popped off with 7 goals against Philadelphia and look to keep that momentum rolling.

As for the Islanders, they dropped 4 on Boston the last time they played. The Islanders haven’t struggled to score against Boston this season and I think they continue that trend on Thursday.

• Boston averages 32.2 shots per game against NYI.
• The Bruins haven’t been shutout since January 18.
• New York has scored 4 goals 4 times this season.
• The Islanders rank 13^th in PP%.