Free Picks: Boston Bruins vs Buffalo Sabres

Curtis Rush
NHL Free Picks – Best Bets of the Week
Bruins vs Sabres NHL
Boston Bruins vs Buffalo Sabres,, NHL, TD Garden, Boston

The best sports bet for today is taking Boston with the puck line -1.5 (-145) with 10Bet. I think I would dip my toe into the money line and the Over/Under markets too. That’s how one-sided this game should be.

Buffalo on way to 17th loss in a row

Buffalo is headed for its 17th loss in a row. When I go about making my NHL picks, I look at a few things, and one of them is head-to-head games. But these teams really don’t know each other that well. They’ve only met once before this season, and that was earlier this month when Boston won 4-1.

When I’m making my NHL predictions, I look at the goaltending battle. In goal, the Sabres are expected to start Dustin Tokarski, while the Bruins counter with their No. 2 netminder Jaroslav Halak after Tuukka Rask was pulled after one period in Thursday’s OT loss to the New York Islanders with an upper-body injury.

Tokarski has played only three games for Buffalo (0-3) and has an .890 save percentage and a whopping 4.11 goals-against average. Halak has a 7-4-3 record, a 2.25 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage, with 2 shutouts.

The Bruins are not dominating the NHL Stanley Cup odds. For good reason. They are 4-3-3 in their last 10 and are being chased by the New York Rangers for the fourth and final spot in the East Division playoff hunt.

Betting Buffalo to win on the money line could be the most risky bet in quite some time in the NHL, but boy would it pay off if the Sabres pull the upset. With +325 odds on the money line (10Bet), a $100 bet would win $325. The implied odds suggest a 23% chance of this happening. My statistical model suggests Buffalo has only a 7% chance of winning this game.

I think the safe bet is to go with the Bruins on the money line (-425) with 10Bet, with the implied odds of an 80% chance of victory. But I like Boston with the puck line (-145) with 10Bet. Buffalo is not only losing game after game, but they are usually not staying within 2 goals of their opponent.

I think the Over has value (5.5) (+101) with 10Bet. Boston is also fresh. Because of Covid postponements, the Bruins have had only one game in the last week. Unless they are out of sync because of the long layoff, I would expect them to come at Buffalo in waves.

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  • The Over is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last 8 games as a road underdog.
  • The Under is 3-1-1 in Sabres’ last 5 vs a team with a winning record.
  • The Over is 5-0 in the Wild’s last 5 games as an underdog.
  • The Under is 6-0 in their last 6 meetings.

I live in the land of ice and snow in Toronto, Canada's largest city. I can't skate very well, but I know sports, especially hockey, after a long career writing about the Toronto Maple Leafs and other teams at the country's largest newspaper, the Toronto Star. Betting on sports can be a rewarding experience when you understand the trends and underlying characteristics of the teams and players before laying down a bet. That's how I hope to point you in the right direction.