Free Picks: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics will renew hostilities with the Milwaukee Bucks after the latter was able to get the better of the former two nights ago in the last outing for both teams. The Celtics just made a few moves at the trade deadline on Thursday, however, shipping out Daniel Theis, Jeff Teague, and Javonte Green and welcoming Evan Fournier, Luke Kornet, and Mo Wagner. It seems unlikely that the newcomers will be ready to go for this Friday matchup with the Bucks, however.

If they are unable to play, one would think that would mean the Celtics will be severely undermanned on Friday night against the Bucks. Milwaukee, on the other hand, was conspicuously quiet during deadline day, though that does mean that they will be trotting out a team with a lot more continuity and depth than Boston will at Fiserv.

It is also worth noting that Tristan Thompson is not with the Celtics at the moment, which means Robert Williams is their only big man option against the Bucks after Theis’ departure.

The man they call the Timelord has been a revelation this season, but he’s still got a lot of work to do on his game, and a matchup where he’s the only option Boston has to guard seven-footers Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo means the 6’8” Williams will be battling fatigue for much of the night.

Boston’s abysmal record on the road this season doesn’t help their cause either. The Celtics have gone a horrific 8-16 against the spread away from home this season, worse than every team in basketball except the Cleveland Cavaliers. And what do you know, the Bucks just so happen to have the second best straight up home record in the league at 18-5.

Boston has been even worse on the road recently, going 2-9 ATS in their last 11 away games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their last five as the road underdog. The Bucks, for their part, have also been playing half decent lately, coming into this one riding an eight-game winning streak.

Milwaukee has won three of the past four meetings, and they’ve also emerged victorious during Boston’s last five straight visits to Wisconsin. We like Milwaukee to cover a -4.5 point spread at decent -131 NBA odds as the first of our NBA picks on this matchup.

Our second NBA pick for this battle of Eastern Conference titans on the game’s point total is one of our best bets for today. Both of these teams are in the top ten in over hit rate this season, and there are a bevy of trends that are pointing to a wager on the over for this matchup of Eastern playoff teams.

The Celtics have had 14 of their 22 games following a loss go over the total, fourth-highest in the NBA, while the Bucks have had 18 of their 28 games after a win go over the total, third-highest in the league. Nine of Boston’s 12 games as the road dog have gone over and 15 of Milwaukee’s 23 games as the home favorite have gone over as well.

Those trends have been especially potent lately, with the over going 7-2 in Boston’s last nine as the road dog and 4-0 in Milwaukee’s last four as the favorite at Fiserv. When the Bucks allow an opponent to score 100 points in their previous game, the over has hit six straight times in their next contest.

It seems we have no choice but to listen to the Over Lord’s guidance and get back on the over horse here. We’ll take this one to eclipse the game’s 231.5 point total at -127 NBA odds as another top pick tonight.

• Boston is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games
• Milwaukee has won 7 of the past 9 meetings SU
• 7 of the past 9 games Boston has played as the road underdog have gone over the total
• Milwaukee’s last 4 games as the home favorite have gone over the total