Free Picks: Nashville Predators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

By: Curtis Rush
04/14/2021
NHL Free Picks – Best Bets of the Week
Predators vs Lightning NHL
Nashville Predators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning,, NHL, Bridgestone Arena

The Nashville Predators are trying to fight off the Chicago Blackhawks for the last playoff spot. Nashville should be desperate against the defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning, but is that enough to pull off the upset? But don’t look at the current records. Look at the last month and you may be surprised.

Nashville, Tampa make trade deadline deals

Both the Predators and Lightning were active as the trade deadline came and went on Monday. Nashville has been banged up on defense and acquired a big, physical defenseman in Erik Gudbranson from Ottawa in exchange for defenseman Brandon Fortunato and a draft pick.

And on Saturday, Tampa acquired defenseman David Savard from Columbus. He is projected to be a top-four defenseman with the Lightning. He has a goal and five assists in 40 games. Tampa also acquired defenseman Fredrik Claesson from San Jose on Monday.

In the last month, Nashville (12-4) has a better record than Tampa (10-6), mainly by cutting back on their goals against. In fact, the Preds are No. 1 in the league in goals allowed over that span (1.94 goals per game allowed) and goaltender Juuse Saros has been the second-best goalie in the league (.961 save percentage) over the last 16 games.

When I go about making my NHL picks, I look at the goaltenders. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best goalie in the league and he is 5-0 against Nashville this season (.940 save percentage). Pekka Rinne (2.97 GAA, .902 save percentage) started the last game against Tampa and made 31 saves in a strong performance.

When I’m making my NHL predictions, I look at injuries. Tampa won’t have Steven Stamkos, so this will take away from Tampa’s offense. But Nashville might be tired. This is their third game in four nights.

The Money Line odds in favor of Tampa (-175)  are too expensive to win $100. I’m more interested in the puck line to get the best value (+152) for Tampa to cover (-1.5). All of the previous seven games, except for one, have seen a spread of at least three goals with Nashville winning only one game.

I see Tampa winning this one 4-2 and covering (-1.5) (+152) with 10Bet. And I’m taking the Over on total goals (5.5) (-103) with 10Bet.

10bet review
FREE PICK: THE LIGHTNING TO COVER THE PUCK LINE (-1.5)
+152

Stats

  • The Over is 9-2 in Tampa’s last 11 road games.
  • The Under is 4-1 in their last five meetings in Nashville.
  • The Under is 3-0-2 in Predators’ last five games as an underdog.
  • Tampa is 20-21 ATS this season.

I live in the land of ice and snow in Toronto, Canada's largest city. I can't skate very well, but I know sports, especially hockey, after a long career writing about the Toronto Maple Leafs and other teams at the country's largest newspaper, the Toronto Star. Betting on sports can be a rewarding experience when you understand the trends and underlying characteristics of the teams and players before laying down a bet. That's how I hope to point you in the right direction.

NHL Eastern Metropolitan

 

TeamWLOT%
1Carolina54208.707
2NY Rangers52246.671
3Pittsburgh462511.628
4Washington442612.610
5NY Islanders373510.512
6Columbus37387.494
7New Jersey27469.384
8Philadelphia254611.372

 

NHL Eastern Atlantic

TeamWLOT%
1Florida58186.744
2Toronto54217.701
3Tampa Bay51238.671
4Boston51265.652
5Buffalo323911.457
6Detroit324010.451
7Ottawa33427.445
8Montréal224911.335

 

NHL - Western Central

TeamWLOT%
1Colorado56197.726
2Minnesota53227.689
3St Louis492211.665
4Dallas46306.598
5Nashville45307.591
6Winnipeg393211.543
7Chicago284212.415
8Arizona25507.348

 

NHL - Western Pacific

TeamWLOT%
1Calgary502111.677
2Edmonton49276.634
3Los Angeles442711.604
4Vegas43318.573
5Vancouver403012.561
6San Jose323713.470
7Anaheim313714.463
8Seattle27496.366

 

2021-22 Season
Regular season beginsOctober 12
All-Star & Winter Games breakFebruary 3-22
Trade deadlineMarch 21
Final day of regular seasonApril 29
Stanley Cup Playoffs beginMay 2
Last possible day for PlayoffsJune 30
2022 NHL DraftJuly 7