Free Picks: Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning vs Stars NHL week 16
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL, Amalie Arena

If there is one thing the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning share, it’s their dedication to defense. While Tampa Bay may be known for their flashy, offensive play, the Lighting’s talents on defense are grossly underrated. The same could be said about the Dallas Stars. They are hoping to reach the playoffs and one of their biggest reasons they have seen success is their defensive capabilities.

Can Dallas' offense crack Tampa Bay's defense?

The Dallas Stars’ offense isn’t considered to be elite, but they have certainly held their own due to the number of injuries sustained this season. With that being said, Dallas has struggled mightily on offense against Tampa Bay.

In 5 games played, the Stars have managed to score just 8 goals against the defending Stanley Cup champions. For this free NHL prediction, I think it’s only fitting that I focus on the over/under in total goals.

Tacking on to Dallas’ scoring woes, the Stars have been shut out twice this season to Tampa Bay. 2/3rds of Dallas’ shutouts this season have been at the hand of the Lightning, which doesn’t bode well for the total goals hitting the over.

I am confident that this is a low-scoring game. Dallas’ offense is sketchy against the Lightning but the Stars do a solid job in their regard. For a team like Tampa Bay, who owns one of the best offenses in the NHL, they haven’t lit up the scoreboard against the Stars.

In 5 games, Tampa Bay has scored 4 and 5 goals, but then 3, 2, and 2 respectively. I expect the Lightning to pot a couple against Dallas, but I think the Lightning can handle anything thrown at them from Dallas. This season, head-to-head meetings have been low-scoring, which is why I think taking the under will be your best bet for this BetPicks prediction.

I need to trust the defense of both Dallas and Tampa Bay. I am confident in Tampa Bay’s ability, and statistically, the Stars have done relatively well keeping the Lightning’s offense at bay.

I project it will be a close one. There is no room for error, but I think we see this game take the under.


  • The total has gone under in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games.
  • Tampa Bay and Dallas are both ranked 8th in total goals against..
  • Dallas averages 1.90 goals per game against TB in last 10.
  • Dallas ranks 26th in road offense.

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have always wanted to be a writer and sports are my favorite thing in the world, so I combined the two to make a career. I have been a long-time gambler and sports betting writer that isn't afraid to look at the underdog or specials. I am covering the NHL, MLB and NCAA Football for and am a huge fan of both sports - as well as many others. Follow me on Twitter (@Patrick_Trudeau) so we can talk betting, sports, or why ketchup DOES belong on Poutine.