Free Picks: Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning vs Stars NHL week 16
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL, Amalie Arena

If there is one thing the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning share, it’s their dedication to defense. While Tampa Bay may be known for their flashy, offensive play, the Lighting’s talents on defense are grossly underrated. The same could be said about the Dallas Stars. They are hoping to reach the playoffs and one of their biggest reasons they have seen success is their defensive capabilities.

Can Dallas' offense crack Tampa Bay's defense?

The Dallas Stars’ offense isn’t considered to be elite, but they have certainly held their own due to the number of injuries sustained this season. With that being said, Dallas has struggled mightily on offense against Tampa Bay.

In 5 games played, the Stars have managed to score just 8 goals against the defending Stanley Cup champions. For this free NHL prediction, I think it’s only fitting that I focus on the over/under in total goals.

Tacking on to Dallas’ scoring woes, the Stars have been shut out twice this season to Tampa Bay. 2/3rds of Dallas’ shutouts this season have been at the hand of the Lightning, which doesn’t bode well for the total goals hitting the over.

I am confident that this is a low-scoring game. Dallas’ offense is sketchy against the Lightning but the Stars do a solid job in their regard. For a team like Tampa Bay, who owns one of the best offenses in the NHL, they haven’t lit up the scoreboard against the Stars.

In 5 games, Tampa Bay has scored 4 and 5 goals, but then 3, 2, and 2 respectively. I expect the Lightning to pot a couple against Dallas, but I think the Lightning can handle anything thrown at them from Dallas. This season, head-to-head meetings have been low-scoring, which is why I think taking the under will be your best bet for this BetPicks prediction.

I need to trust the defense of both Dallas and Tampa Bay. I am confident in Tampa Bay’s ability, and statistically, the Stars have done relatively well keeping the Lightning’s offense at bay.

I project it will be a close one. There is no room for error, but I think we see this game take the under.

Stats

  • The total has gone under in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games.
  • Tampa Bay and Dallas are both ranked 8th in total goals against..
  • Dallas averages 1.90 goals per game against TB in last 10.
  • Dallas ranks 26th in road offense.

More NHL Free Picks

See more
NHL Draft 2021

NHL Draft 2021 Odds & Predictions

With the future of the NHL in the hands of all 32 owners, the NHL Draft is one of the most hyped events on the hockey calendar.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild NHL Stanley Cup 2021 Round 1

Free Picks: Wild vs. Golden Knights, 2021 Stanley Cup Round 1

The Minnesota Wild travel to Vegas to play the Golden Knights on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in their round 1 playoff series. Vegas seems destined.

Nashville Predators vs Carolina Hurricanes NHL Stanley Cup 2021 Round 1

Free Picks: Hurricanes vs Predators, 2021 Stanley Cup Round 1

The Number 1 ranked Hurricanes battle it out against the underdog Predators in the Central Division. Can Nashville hang with the big dogs in round 1?

New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Stanley Cup 2021 Round 1

Free Picks: Islanders vs. Penguins, 2021 Stanley Cup Round 1

The Pittsburgh Penguins open at home in their best-of-seven playoff series against the N.Y. Islanders on Sunday. The Penguins are favored.

have always wanted to be a writer and sports are my favorite thing in the world, so I combined the two to make a career. I have been a long-time gambler and sports betting writer that isn't afraid to look at the underdog or specials. I am covering the NHL, MLB and NCAA Football for BetPicks.ca and am a huge fan of both sports - as well as many others. Follow me on Twitter (@Patrick_Trudeau) so we can talk betting, sports, or why ketchup DOES belong on Poutine.