Free Picks: Colorado Avalanche vs Vegas Golden Knights

For all the glitz and glamor VGK and COL have on offense, they are two elite defending teams. Monday night, I dive into the total goals and take a look at how the over has burned me in previous games. Trusting my gut, I am all in on one specific wager.

While that may or may not be true, for the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche, it’s clear that the defensive aspect of their game is regularly worked on. Both squads are two of the best defensive teams in the NHL. And for the final time in the regular season, these teams go head-to-head.  

I have been burned before trusting two defensive teams for total goals bets. When I see two squads like this, it screams under. But then we see high-scoring games that embarrass me as both a bettor and writer. 

With that being said: I am all in on the under in total goals.  

For this NHL prediction, I want to look at previous encounters between the Avalanche and Golden Knights this season.  

In 7 games played against one another, the total goals equal 4.57 goals per game. No bet is a sure thing, but I am confident that we see another low-scoring affair. 

5 of the 7 meetings between Vegas and Colorado would have hit the under in total goals if we’re operating at the O/U being 5.5. 

I need to trust my gut for this free NHL pick. Colorado is great in their own end. The Avs’ Philipp Grubauer is one of the league leaders in shutouts, while Vegas’ Marc-Andre Fleury is right behind Grubauer in the same category. Robin Lehner’s GAA is something to watch out for as well. He has been a brick wall in the blue paint and will be a huge factor in tonight’s game if he gets the start.   

I think both offenses are too good to be held off the scoreboard tonight. Vegas has scored in every game against the Avalanche, while Colorado has been shut out twice. But again, in those shutouts, it was a defensive battle for the majority of the game. 

I am banking on a 2-1, 3-2 sort of finish to this game. I will be happily surprised if we see either team held off the scoreboard. But I am bracing myself for impact. This bet will come down to a potential empty net goal late in the game. 

Simply, I love the value and all signs are pointing to another low-scoring game. Gearing up for playoffs, this will be a defensive test for both teams Monday night. 

• The total has gone under in 4 of Colorado’s last 6 games. 
• The total has gone under in 5 of 7 games this season H2H. 
• Vegas ranks 2nd in goals against per game.  
• Both Lehner and Grubauer have a GAA just over 2.00