Free Picks: Colorado Avalanche vs. Arizona Coyotes

Bit by the injury bug, Arizona looks to take advantage of a hurt Colorado squad. The Avalanche are coming off an overtime loss to the Ducks, while the Coyotes are looking to maintain their winning ways. With how unpredictable this season has been, I focus on the underdog in this contest and why I think we see an upset Monday night.

The Coyotes have 11 wins on the season. However, 5 of those wins came against the Kings, Ducks, and Sharks. On top of that, another 3 of their 11 wins came from the St. Louis Blues, which makes me question whether the Coyotes are a legit threat or not.

Arizona has won against teams like Vegas and Minnesota as well. While the NHL has immense parity, figuring out the legitimacy of the Coyotes is puzzling. Monday night, the Yotes will get another test against a top team – the Colorado Avalanche.

Colorado is hurt. Players like Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon are at the top of a long list of injured Avalanche players. The good news for Colorado is that they have had Arizona’s number this season. The Avs have won two straight games against the Yotes.

With that being said, I think the trend changes for this free NHL pick. Arizona is buzzing off a victory against Minnesota, while Colorado has struggled against the lowly Ducks in recent games. Granted, they split against Anaheim but took both games into overtime.

There are a number of metrics that make me confident in this BetPicks prediction. One is how solid the Coyotes’ Penalty Kill is. Arizona’s PK% comes in at 82.7, good for 8th in the NHL. Colorado’s Power Play percentage is good enough for 13th in the league, but the Avs’ offense isn’t as dominating this season.

Colorado is not a first-period team. The Avs score the majority of their goals in the second and third frames. Arizona is the same, as they have only scored 9 of their 65 goals in the opening frame.

The key to this game is Arizona scoring first. Colorado is 2-4-1 when the opponent scores first. Being in a deficit is tough to climb out of, which favors Arizona. The Coyotes’ defense is ranked 18th in goals against., so if they manage to take an early lead, this favors Arizona winning straight up Thankfully for Arizona, Colorado has struggled on offense this season.

Arizona can learn from the Ducks’ recent two games against Colorado. If Arizona can recognize what the Ducks’ mistakes were against Colorado in their  two-game series, Arizona can shock as the underdog.

• Arizona is 6-8 as an underdog this season.
• The Coyotes are 4-3 on the road.
• Colorado are 12-9-2 as the favourite.
• The Avalanche have 6 players questionable for Monday.