Free Picks: Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets

The Golden State Warriors have not been great over the past little while, but they are having a short little spurt of success here, having won two of their past three. Their opponents on Wednesday at the Chase Center, the Denver Nuggets, just had an eight-game winning streak snapped on Sunday afternoon. As has been the trend this season, this matchup of Western Conference playoff contenders features two teams that are each missing significant pieces.

The Warriors learned recently that they have likely lost their prized rookie and No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft, center James Wiseman, for at least the rest of the regular season with a torn meniscus. Golden State also continues to miss spunky youngster Eric Paschall and will likely be without the services of Kelly Oubre Jr. on Monday night as well as the slasher deals with a wrist injury.

Denver hasn’t been safe from the rife of injuries ripping through the ranks of the NBA’s best and brightest either, with Jamal Murray missing the past four games as he deals with a knee issue. The Canadian’s status is unclear for Monday night, but one would assume that he will sit out another one considering this is the second leg of a back-to-back.

Monte Morris and Facundo Campazzo are about as capable a backup point guard duo as you’ll find, however, so the Nuggets had been able to manage without the Blue Arrow for a few games before the bottom fell out at the end of their Sunday afternoon game against the Boston Celtics when they allowed the C’s to go on an unspeakable 31-3 run.

NBA INJURY ALERT: Warriors SF/PF Kelly Oubre Jr. (wrist) has been ruled out Monday vs. the Nuggets. pic.twitter.com/cxRI4iA4gb

— DK Nation (@dklive) April 12, 2021

No doubt that will have left a sour taste in the mouths of all the Nuggets, especially Nikola Jokic, who had a rough afternoon despite picking up yet another triple-double. The absence of Wiseman, Golden State’s only viable big man, is surely something that Jokic will be very aware of and looking to use to his and his team’s advantage come Monday night.

Jokic has led the Nuggets well this season, imbuing the squad with a certain consistency that many teams—their Monday night opponent especially—have struggled to maintain. Denver has won their past six games following a loss, with their last consecutive defeats coming nearly two months ago on February 17th.

The Warriors, meanwhile, have been one of those teams that has really struggled to get into any kind of rhythm, going just 10-14 ATS after a win this season and 1-5 ATS in their last six games in that situation. They’ll look great one night, and then lose by 60 the next—they really are like night and day from matchup to matchup.

Denver has also been a great road team this season, going 14-10 ATS overall while putting up an even more impressive 11-7 ATS mark when they’re favored in someone else’s building, like they’ll be on Monday at Chase. The Warriors haven’t exactly impressed as an underdog either, putting up an ugly 11-21 ATS mark as the dog, second-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets had been on quite a roll before the system broke down completely in the third and fourth quarters on Sunday afternoon, and we’d expect them to make the proper adjustments and get back on their horse against the Warriors. We like Denver to cover their -2.5 NBA point spread at nice -127 NBA odds as our best bet for today.

• Golden State is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
• Denver is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games
• Golden State is 11-21 ATS as the underdog this season
• Golden State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after a win