Free Picks: Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors went into the All-Star break on multi-game losing streaks, but they’ve both been able to bounce back post-break, with each team entering this Monday night matchup coming off a win. The Lakers had to come back to beat the Indiana Pacers in their last time out, while the Warriors found it in themselves to dominate the Utah Jazz, who are currently the class of the NBA.

The way Golden State handled their business against the Utah Jazz was impressive, with their struggling second unit coming up big for them in the second half. However, while the Jazz have been the best team this season, it’s the Lakers who hold the NBA’s best road record, tied with their crosstown rivals at 13-5.

The Dubs have had trouble with consistency, failing to string more than three wins together all season. That performance against Utah seems like more of a fluke than the start of a run, but this tilt with the Lakers will be a good indicator of whether things are as they seem for the Warriors. Los Angeles has covered the spread in four of their past six games, while the Dubs have gone 1-4 ATS in their last quintet of contests.

For our NBA point spread pick on this matchup we’re leaning firmly towards the Lakers camp. Golden State has had some trouble with the West’s top teams recently, with this being their sixth straight game against their conference’s top squads. L.A. has won 14 of their past 20 games against the Western Conference, so we’ll buy their spread up to -1.5 points at passable -122 NBA odds.

One of our best bets for today is the under on this game’s 223.5 point total at saucy -116 odds. Here, we have two of the top six teams in the league in terms of hitting unders: The Lakers have done it 24 times and the Warriors, 22. Both teams have also gone under in six of their eight games against the rest of the top six squads in under rate.

The Lakers have been really tough to score on when they’re away from the Staples Center, which is a big reason we have the under for this clash as one of our top picks. They’re giving up a league-low 104.0 points per game on the road, which is somehow lower than L.A.’s overall season average of 106.2.

Games have failed to hit the point total in 14 of L.A.’s 18 road contests this season, serving as the worst houseguests in the league as they clamp down on their hosts in their own buildings on a nightly basis. A dozen of the Lakers’ 15 games as away favorites have gone under the total as well, as they’ve especially dominated lesser teams while they’re Jack Kerouac-ing it.

Our third and final NBA pick for this contest is also another of our best bets for today. LeBron James had a quiet night against the Pacers in L.A.’s last game, contributing just 18 points in the win and failing to hit the over on his point prop (which, coincidentally, we had him hitting). We like him to make good this time around, though.

LeBron is always the King, but he has specifically been the king of the bounce back this year, posting a 33.1 scoring average in seven games after a sub-20 point performance and notching 28+ points in all but one of those contests. We expect James to hit 30 against the Warriors and cruise over his 28.5 points total, which we’re getting at -125 NBA odds.

• The under is 15-9 after a Los Angeles win
• Golden State is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference
• Los Angeles have won 4 of the past 5 meetings SU
• LeBron James has averaged 29.0 points on Mondays this season