Free Picks: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

The Golden State Warriors have been on a bit of a roll lately, winning three of their past four games to up their record to 11-9. We’ll see if they can continue that strong play when the Boston Celtics, who have lost five of their last seven games, come to the Chase Center on Tuesday night. Can the Warriors stay in the groove, or will the C’s finally escape this run of tough results.

Boston hasn’t been playing awful basketball during this tough stretch, they just haven’t been able to find that late kick to finish teams off. Their last two outings resulted in a pair of really tight losses to the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers by a combined five points. This visit to the Chase Center to take on the Warriors on Tuesday night feels like a get right game for the young C’s.

The Warriors aren’t some sort of doormat against which teams can easily get their rhythm back, but they definitely aren’t at the same level of quality as the Celtics this season. Steph Curry is doing all he can with 27.7 points per game (sixth in the NBA, and Curry’s highest since his 2015-2016 MVP season), but even Draymond Green hasn’t been much help, posting an ugly -1.64 real plus-minus and 8.13 PER that rank him in the bottom half of the NBA.

Golden State has been playing sloppy ball this season: they’ve allowed the fifth-most points off of turnovers (18.6), the fourth-most second-chance points (14.5), and the sixth-most fast break points (13.9). Those numbers are welcome news for the Celtics, who force their opponents into 14.7 turnovers (eighth in the NBA), grab 10.9 offensive rebounds (eighth), and score 13.5 fast break points (12th) per game.

The Boston Celtics shouldn’t have too tough a time scoring in their halfcourt offense either considering the Warriors are giving up 113.3 points per game, eighth-most in the league. The Celtics are too good to stay down this long and we like them to emerge from this rough patch on Tuesday, so we’re going to go with an NBA point spread play with Boston at -2.5 points at-127 odds (22Bet).

Guys like Daniel Theis and Marcus Smart have been doing a great job as glue guys getting a lot of dirty work done this season, which has allowed Boston’s two crown jewels, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, to spread their wings and shine. Brown and Tatum are averaging 27.1 (ninth) and 26.8 points (11th), respectively, which makes them the most potent scoring duo in the NBA outside of Brooklyn.

These young guns are both 24 and under, and they’ve already combined to play 106 playoff games which means they know a little something about winning and finding that second wind late in games that they haven’t had over the past couple of weeks. We like the over on both Tatum (25.5) and Brown’s (24.5) point props and you’re welcome to take both, but we’re going to stick with the more attractive of the two today.

Brown is a top 10 scorer in the NBA this season, averaging 27+ points per game, yet sportsbooks still put his point prop at 24.5, a total which he has eclipsed in 12 of his 18 appearances this season. This prop was already one of our top picks, but then you throw in the fact that 22Bet is offering the over at beautiful -105 odds and it easily becomes one of the best bets for today.

• Golden State has gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning SU record
• Golden State has gone 5-7 ATS as an underdog this season
• Jaylen Brown is averaging 27.1 points through 18 games this season
• Boston has gone 9-4 ATS this season against teams outside their division