Free Picks: Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks

The Golden State Warriors really hit rock bottom last week when they lost by 53 points to the Toronto Raptors with stars Steph Curry and Draymond Green both unavailable. It represented the second-biggest defeat in franchise history, and you simply cannot explain that away. Curry and Green both returned to the lineup a couple of days later, but even with their big guns the Warriors couldn’t get back in the win column, dropping their matchup with the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday as well.

Steve Kerr’s outfit has now lost three straight and seven of their past eight and now find themselves a measly half-game ahead of the charging New Orleans Pelicans for the 10th seed in the West, which is the last spot in the play-in tournament.

Golden State is cold as ice right now, but they’ve got a ton of offensive talent and some solid defenders, so they should be expected to wake up from this nightmare sooner rather than later. Despite the Milwaukee Bucks’ hot run of play lately, this could be a good spot for the Dubs against the Bucks on Tuesday night.

The Bucks have been awful away from Wisconsin, going just 9-15 against the spread on the road so far this season. Their clash with the Warriors on Tuesday will also be Milwaukee’s fifth straight game on the road, which doesn’t bode well for Mike Budenholzer’s squad: the Bucks are 0-4 ATS this season when they’re playing in the fourth game of a road trip or later.

Golden State hasn’t been perfect at home, but their 13-10 ATS mark at Chase Center is encouraging, as is their 5-3 ATS mark in their last eight games in the Bay. Milwaukee has also had much trouble dealing with the big, bad West Coast, going just 9-13 ATS overall against that conference this season while going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against those opponents.

The Bucks’ recent success is also something of a smoke screen: while they’ve won seven of their past 10 straight up, they’ve actually dropped seven of their last 10 ATS. Giannis Antetokounmpo and company have also dropped four of their past six ATS and eight of their past 12 ATS when they are favorites of five or more points.

It would seem that both of these teams continue to deal with the achilles heel of many an NBA team: inconsistency. The greatness of Curry and Green should shine through on Tuesday night and allow them to bounce back and cover a +7.5 NBA point spread at -135 NBA odds for the first of our NBA picks on this matchup.

Another of our best bets for today is on Golden State’s head chef, Mr. Curry. Our NBA pick here will be on the over for Curry’s points prop, which is sitting at 28.5 at -125 NBA odds as of this writing. Curry didn’t play in that embarrassing 50-point loss, but most of the youngsters that did play in that ugly demolition derby on Friday have been under the 33-year-old’s wing all season, so he should still be feeling some type of way about that.

Curry’s team lost their next game even with his return, but the veteran still had 37 points despite not shooting a great percentage from beyond the arc. The Chef is scoring 35 points per game over his past three contests, and we like him to keep those heaters on high against Milwaukee.

Not to mention that Curry’s 16 starts and 19.9 points per game against Milwaukee are both the lowest in his career against any foe, so he’s due for an explosion in Giannis’ grill. Curry’s teams have also historically had the goods on the Greek Freak’s teams, winning eight of the 11 head-to-head clashes between the pair of two-time NBA MVPs.

• Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the Western Conference
• Milwaukee is 9-15 ATS on the road this season
• Golden State is 5-3 ATS in their last 8 home games
• Steph Curry is averaging 35.0 points per night over his past 3 outings