Free Picks: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors

The Raps and Thunder will meet on Wednesday night in the Sooner state with nearly identical records but wildly different season outlooks. While the Raptors seem to still have designs on making a push for the Eastern play-in, they are on a three-game losing streak and are losers in 12 of their past 13. Fortunately, they’re coming up against a beat up Thunder team on Wednesday night that is also coming into this clash on a three-game skid.

March was an admittedly ugly month for the Raptors, but it is worth noting that a lot of those games came without the crucial trio of Fred VanVleet (out five games), Pascal Siakam (six games), and OG Anunoby (seven games), who all missed significant time during the month as they went through the league’s health and safety protocols after contracting COVID-19.

Another reason the Raptors have been a little off their game recently is the constant rotation tinkering from head coach Nick Nurse. Despite those rotation issues, Toronto has more than enough talent to take care of this broken down Thunder group: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Darius Bazley, and Al Horford are not available for Oklahoma City on Thursday.

SGA does not have a timetable to return, and it doesn’t seem like a coincidence that OKC has not won in the three games since their Canadian phenom went down with a foot injury. The Thunder are the fourth-worst home team against the spread this season which also bodes well for the Raptors on Wednesday.

Toronto has emerged with an ATS win in six of their last seven trips to the Sooner state. Considering the state of OKC’s roster, their record at Chesapeake Energy Arena this season, and how much the Raps love playing away from their ‘home’ at Amalie Arena, we like the Raps to cover a -6.5 NBA point spread at -127 NBA odds as one of our best bets for today.

Another wager we like for this matchup is the over on the 221.5 total points prop at -125 NBA odds. Seven of the last nine meetings between these sides have gone over and the same can be said for seven of OKC’s last eight home games. 10 of 13 games where the Raptors came in as the away favorite have gone over the total as well.

Further, the over has gone 13-9 when the Thunder are underdogs at home this season. It has also eclipsed the betting total in 17 of 26 games where Toronto is the favorite, and the over has the same record when the Raps are playing on the road.

Another prop we like for this tilt on Wednesday night is a bet on the over for Thunder big man Moses Brown’s 24.5 points + rebounds prop at -125 NBA odds. The kid has been a revelation since joining the rotation for real a couple of weeks ago, posting four double-doubles in March and averaging 14.0 points and 15.4 rebounds in five games when he played 30+ minutes.

Expect the 21-year-old to keep playing a ton of minutes with the Thunder and veteran big man Al Horford publicly deciding to part ways before season’s end after not agreeing on a contract buyout. The Raptors have also had trouble defending at the five this season as well with veteran Aron Baynes struggling all-around and the lithe Canadian Chris Boucher struggling with bigger bodies like Brown’s 7’2” 245-pound frame.

• Toronto is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Oklahoma City
• Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Eastern Conference
• 10 of Toronto’s 13 games as away favorite have gone over the total
• Moses Brown has averaged 14.0 points and 15.4 rebounds per game when he plays 30+ minutes