Free Picks: Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers

The Phoenix Suns finally return home after a tough five-game East Coast road trip that saw them go 3-2 against five of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference. They return to the desert on Wednesday to take on another of the top teams in their own Western Conference, the Los Angeles Clippers. How whole the Clippers will be for this matchup remains to be seen, while the Suns once again come into the game without much in the way of injury woes.

The Suns have been mostly whole for this entire season, somehow avoiding that irascible injury bug of the 2020-2021 season that has stolen dozens of games from some of the league’s best and brightest, seemingly especially when it comes to the top title contenders. Not the desert-dwellers, though.

They have missed Jae Crowder for the past three games with an ankle sprain, but considering that he has continually been listed as questionable leading into the games he’s missed, it seems his return is imminent, and will possibly occur on Wednesday against the Clippers.

Forward Dario Saric, who has been dealing with his own right ankle issue, is also questionable to return to Phoenix’s lineup on Wednesday night after two nights on the pine. But that’s about it.

So while the Suns have enjoyed a very healthy season, the Clippers have been dealing with something like the opposite of the spectrum this year. Their biggest offseason addition, big man and former Kawhi Leonard teammate from the 2019 Raptors championship season Serge Ibaka, has not played since March 14th. Leonard himself has missed 17 games this season, including eight of the past nine and the last four straight.

Paul George has been the healthiest of the lot and he’s still missed 16 games, though he is expected to be out there on Wednesday night, unlike Ibaka and Leonard, who are out and doubtful, respectively. George did say that he was feeling some soreness in his ankle after a brutal nine-point performance on Monday night, but he’s not on the injury report as of this writing, so we’re expecting him out there and due for a bounce back performance.

The Clippers have been good-not-great when George plays and the Klaw does not, winning six of 10 such contests. It’s a decent mark but those 10 games did include a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, a 51-point shellacking at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks, and half of the wins coming against the Houston Rockets, T-Wolves, and Indiana Pacers, none of which are anywhere near the quality of the Suns.

Phoenix is also in a very comfortable spot coming into this one off a tough five-game road trip during which they went 3-2 against five of the top six Eastern Conference teams. The Suns are 7-3 against the spread in a home game following an away game this season, they’re 5-2 ATS playing in the desert after a multi-game roadie, and they’re 3-1 ATS in home games following a road trip of three games or more.

The Suns have been one of the most reliable teams when it comes to exceeding expectations this season, but they’ve also rewarded bettors as the favorite as well. When Phoenix has played at the Phoenix Suns Arena as the favorite this season, they’ve put up an 18-10 ATS record, or a success rate of just over 64 percent.

L.A. has won the previous two games of this matchup this season, and considering the caliber of the Suns and the stubbornness of Chris Paul-led teams, we doubt they allow a season-sweep. Phoenix has also dropped their last four straight ATS against the West, so they’re due for a big win. Our NBA pick for this matchup is going to be the Suns’ -5.5 point spread at -128 NBA odds, which we like as our best bet for today.

• Phoenix is 7-3 ATS in the first game back home after a road contest this season
• Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings
• Phoenix is 18-10 ATS as the home favorite this season, 5th in the NBA
• Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Western Conference