Free Picks: Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks

After a so-so 11-8 start to the season, the Milwaukee Bucks have now rattled off wins in their last four straight games. They’ll attempt to run that stretch to five when they head to Ball Arena on Monday night to take on the struggling 12-10 Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have now lost three of their last four contests directly following a five-game winnings streak, so they will be looking to right the ship against the Bucks.

Based on their recent trajectories, it would seem like the obvious play here would be Milwaukee’s NBA point spread, but things aren’t always as they seem. The Bucks may be hot right now, but it’s hard to keep the winning flame lit for as long as they have, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks have not won more than four games straight since the first day of March  in 2020.

The same can be said for the Nuggets and their losing streaks. Denver has been a very consistent team over the past couple of years as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have emerged as bonafide NBA studs, and one would have to go back to December of 2019 to find their last three-game losing skid. The Nuggets really should have beat the Kings in their last time game as well, with the Joker putting up a 50-piece in the absence of Murray, who was taking the night off. The Canadian point guard should be back for this big inter-conference matchup on Monday night, though, which will surely give the Nuggets a boost.

Having a full roster is a big plus for the Nuggets, and Milwaukee’s recent issues against Western Conference teams—and especially Denver—should hearten the squad even more. It’s these strange struggles the Bucks have had the further West they go that makes Denver’s +3.5 point spread at -112 NBA odds one of the best bets for today.

The Bucks have gone 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games against Western Conference opponents, including a 2-4 ATS mark this season. They’re even worse against Denver. In the last 20 meetings between these two teams, the Bucks have gone 7-13 ATS and 4-16 straight up. Over the past ten games these teams have contested in Denver, Milwaukee has emerged victorious just once. Not to mention that the Joker has won six of nine matchups between him and the Greek Freak while holding Antetokounmpo to just 18.8 points per game.

The Bucks have also struggled against good teams this season, going 3-4 ATS against teams currently above .500. Milwaukee has also struggled following wins this season (6-8 ATS), when they’re playing on equal rest (6-7), and when they’re listed as the favorite as the road (5-7). While there are a lot of numbers to support our Nuggets pick, it’s the attitude and feeling of the team that really makes us confident.

Top tier NBA teams don’t lose multiple games in a row, and if by the off chance they do, they for damn sure are not going to lose a third straight. With Murray back in the fold and the Joker’s confidence at an all-time high, the Nuggets should at the least be able to cover the spread, if not outright beat the Bucks, for which 22Bet is offering tasty +147 odds if you’re interested.

• Denver is 5-4 ATS this season after a loss
• Milwaukee is 5-7 ATS as an away favorite this season
• Milwaukee is 4-16 SU in the last 20 meetings
• Denver is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 contests