Free Picks: Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns

After falling to the 10-8 Phoenix Suns in the first game of this back-to-back at the American Airlines Center, Luka Doncic was clearly frustrated with how he and his 8-12 Dallas Mavericks have been playing of late. The young group with high expectations lost their fifth straight game on Saturday against the Suns, but can they exact their revenge on Phoenix on Monday night?

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are getting a reality check. After setting the NBA world on fire in the bubble last summer, the Mavericks entered this season with huge expectations and have promptly fallen flat on their faces. The Mavs have lost their past five straight and eight of their last ten. Their previous loss, a 111-105 Saturday defeat at the hands of the very Suns they play on Monday, led their Slovenian phenom to air his frustrations postgame, “Right now it’s looking like we don’t care, honestly, if we win games or not,” Doncic said.

The Suns, meanwhile, seem to have emerged from a similar run of bad form, having lost five of six games before winning their last two in a row. What’s even more encouraging for the young Suns is that they won that pair of games without their best player and leading scorer, shooting guard Devin Booker, who’s been dealing with a hamstring issue. Booker went through shootaround before Saturday’s game and was no worse for the wear, so the 24-year-old has a great shot of coming back for Monday night to give Phoenix a boost.

Strangely enough, some sportsbooks are listing the Mavericks as the favorites for this game, which means there is a ton of value on the Suns. Phoenix has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Mavs and won the last five meetings straight up as well. Dallas has struggled at home this season, posting a 2-5 mark at American Airlines Arena so far, while also going just 4-5 ATS when they enter a game as the favorites.

Because of this seeming oversight by the sportsbooks, we’re going to forego the Suns’ moneyline and try to cash in on the added value of an NBA point spread play instead. With the prospect of Booker returning and the current state of the Mavericks, we feel that a -1.5 alternate point spread for Phoenix at +105 odds (22Bet) is one of the best bets of the day.

Another of our top picks for this showdown is an over/under play. Both teams are playing their fourth game in six days, which means they’ll both be huffing and puffing on the defensive end of the floor come the late stages of the game, ergo, more points. Dallas and Phoenix have been two of the worst teams for over bettors this year, which is why the total for Saturday’s matchup was only 215. The Suns and Mavs combined for 216 in that game, and we’re expecting even more points this time around.

The Suns have not been a high-scoring team this season, but they’ve had some hot shooting after they win, hitting the over in four of the last five games following Ws. In four of the last five meetings in Dallas, these teams have combined to hit the over as well. In light of these trends, we’re feeling comfortable taking the Game Total Points Over 216.5 at -111 odds (22Bet).

Our third and final pick for this Monday night matchup is on Doncic. Considering what he said in his postgame presser following their last loss, you’d have to think that the 21-year-old is going to come out with some fire, even if we just can’t count on the rest of his team to necessarily follow suit. We’re going with Doncic to cover the over on his 46.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists prop at -125 odds (22Bet), which also turns out to be a nice hedge for Suns bettors since you can almost guarantee Doncic will hit this prop if he somehow carries his team to the win on Monday night.

• Phoenix is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings
• Luka Doncic is averaging 30.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 9.2 assists over the past 6 games
• Dallas is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 against opponents that scored 100+ in their previous game
• Dallas is 0-5 SU in the last five meetings