Free Picks: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics

When the 14-15 Dallas Mavericks host the 15-15 Boston Celtics it will be a battle between two of the most disappointing teams of this young season. Both squads had breakout stars in the bubble in Dallas’ Luka Doncic and Boston’s Jayson Tatum, but neither player has been able to push their team into the elite tier this season, and they’re getting passed by others in the process.

After an 8-3 start the Celtics have cooled off considerably, meanwhile the Mavericks are still trying to shrug off an 8-13 jump to the season. Though Dallas has won six of their past eight, they have struggled against quality opponents, dropping their last five straight contests against 2020 playoff teams—Boston may be young, but their core already has a lot of playoff experience.

If you started off taking a look at Boston’s ugly 6-11 record against the spread on the road this season, you’d think this is a gimme for the Mavs—until you see that they have put up an even more dismal 3-11 ATS mark at American Airlines Arena this season. Dallas won at home on Monday night, but what should have been an easy walk off win turned into a tighter 102-92 finish that forced Doncic and the other starters to play more minutes than they might have liked.

The Mavs have struggled in back-to-backs this season, posting a rough 1-4 mark ATS in back ends as well as a 2-5 ATS record when they come into a game when they’ve had less rest than their opponent. Boston will be trying to take advantage of that as they look to bounce back from a loss, which they’ve been pretty good at doing this season, going 8-6 ATS following a defeat.

On the opposite side of that coin, the Mavs have struggled to sustain any sort of rhythm, going 5-7 ATS after a win so far this year. The C’s have also dominated Dallas of late, winning seven of the past eight meetings and covering the spread in six of those. The length and athleticism Boston has on the wings will cause Doncic and company trouble, so one of our NBA picks for this matchup is the Celtics’ moneyline at solid-111 NBA odds.

Another of our top picks for this Tuesday night tilt is the over on the 224.5 game total for this one at -111 NBA odds. The Mavericks have been on an over roll lately, hitting seven overs in a row before clamping down defensively on Monday night against the Grizzlies. The last couple of times the Mavericks were playing on back-to-backs the total was sky high, and after not playing for a week, two games in a row right away will make for some lazy defense from a team that’s already prone to bouts of it.

The Mavs did show some defensive ability against Memphis on Monday night, but those performances have been few and far between lately. Since holding opponents to under 110 points in six of their first ten games this season, they’ve only managed the feat twice over the past 19 contests, which includes the Grizzlies game.

Boston’s last three games have all gone over as well, and going up against a team playing the way Dallas is lately, we’d expect them to run that streak to four on Tuesday night. Since the start of February, the Mavericks have been scoring the second-most points per game (120.9) while also giving up the second-most (120.7).

• Boston is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a sub-5 point favorite
• Dallas is 0-4 in their last 4 games as a sub-5 point underdog
• Boston is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Dallas
• Dallas is 2nd in both points per game (120.9) and points against per game (120.7) in February