Free Picks: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets

The Milwaukee Bucks had been underperforming greatly for much of this season, but just recently they have really picked up their pace, winning in their last five outings, including an impressive 105-100 win over the Clippers in their most recent contest. The Denver Nuggets will be looking to wake the Bucks up from this lovely dream they’ve been enjoying over the past week and a half, but can they get it done?

The Nuggets are coming into this game on no rest, having beaten the Chicago Bulls in a tough game on Monday night. They actually won the game before that as well, which was also on the road, meaning they have yet to lose on this road trip. Denver has actually been more reliable when they’re Jack Kerouacking it than when they’ve been home among the Rockies, posting a 9-9 record against the spread in away games this season.

Listen, Milwaukee has been playing very well, especially with possibly the most underrated player in the league, Jrue Holiday, returning from a short bout with COVID-19, but I just can’t abide such a large point spread against a team with as much quality as the Nuggets, no matter how much they’ve underachieved so far this year. Because of that, I thought it more prudent to go with Denver’s spread and buy a few points up to a +8.0 point spread at sufficient -137 NBA odds.

The Nuggets have covered in five of the last seven meetings between this pair of franchises and are actually 15-5 straight up over the past 20 showdowns between these teams, which is impressive considering how dominant the Bucks have been in the regular season over the past few years. Denver’s three-point heavy offense, which drains 13.5 threes per game (ninth in the NBA) on 38.7 percent shooting from deep (fifth), also matches up well with a Milwaukee defensive unit allowing opponents 14.4 triples a game (27th) at a 37.8 clip (24th).

The NBA pick we really really like for this tilt is on the game’s total, though. We’re taking the over on the game’s 235.5 point total at satisfactory-115 odds as one of the best bets for today. Both of these teams have been scoring an incredible amount of points this season, with Milwaukee sitting in second (119.6) and Denver in fourth (115.5) in points per game during this campaign.

The Nuggets have also been hitting overs at a rate of 68 percent this season, second in the NBA, while the Bucks have been nearly as potent, hitting at a rate of 61 percent, good for fifth. They aren’t quite the New Orleans Pelicans, but both teams continue to hit the over at a high rate, with three of Denver’s last five games going over the total, and the same going for three of Milwaukee’s last four.

The combination of these two potent offenses paired with subpar or lazy defenses is just too good to pass up. The two clashed about three weeks ago and they hit the over with 237 points, which would work just fine for us on Tuesday night, though a little more cushion is always appreciated so we don’t have to spend the last few minutes of the game with palms so sweaty they would even make Steven Jackson balk.

So far this season, the five teams currently sitting atop the league in terms of over percentage have faced off a combined 13 times, and in 12 of those games the total points soared over. More specifically, the five games in which the Nuggets participated all went over and so did the four Milwaukee played in. Those trends look pretty darn good.

• The over is 12-1 when the top 5 teams in over hit rate play each other this season
• Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee
• The total has gone over in 10 of the past 13 games in which Denver was an underdog
• The total has gone over in 4 of Denver’s past 5 games playing on no rest