Free Picks: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers

The 11-8 Milwaukee Bucks started the season off well but have now lost four of their past six, including their last two in a row. They’ll be desperate to get back on track in their next game, which will come at home against the 10-8 Portland Trail Blazers, who are coming off of a buzzer-beating win over the lowly Chicago Bulls courtesy of Damian Lillard.

The Bucks lost back-to-back tough, close games against title contenders in the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets, then bounced back with a pair of wins, but they couldn’t sustain that momentum and lost their next two. They were dominated by the New Orleans Pelicans nearly all game before a late surge that fell short, and it was a similar game script against the lowly Charlotte Hornets in Milwaukee’s most recent game on Saturday, which Charlotte finished on a 10-0 run that certainly didn’t make the Bucks look too good.

On the other side of the court at Fiserv on the first night of February are the Blazers, who are certainly tempering excitement after that Lillard game-winner considering they’ve still lost three of their past five. Portland is always a threat because of how explosive Dame Dolla can be when he heats up, but without Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins, and CJ McCollum, every game is a struggle for Lillard and the lads.

Portland is also coming into a situation that they haven’t exactly thrived in during this campaign. The Blazers have gone just 3-6 against the spread following a win this season, and they’ve also been awful when playing a game on the same rest as their opponents, going 2-7 in those situations this year.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has not lost three straight regular season games since the second day of March in 2018, so you can bet that the Greek and his freaky teammates are going to come out hungry on Monday night and right the ship, because Milwaukee’s dinghy is rocking like it hasn’t done in years. If Milwaukee is going to be a contender this season as we believe they will be, they simply can’t afford to fall into ruts of three or four games.

Not that they’ll be matching up with each other very often, but Antetokounmpo has historically owned his head-to-head series against Lillard, winning eight of their 12 meetings. It’s not just Giannis who likes to play against Lillard though, Milwaukee as a whole has been dominating Portland over the past few years, winning seven of the past eight matchups.

We don’t love the double-digit NBA point spread being given to the Bucks, but we do love Milwaukee overall on Monday night, so an alternate -7.5 point spread at -154 odds (22Bet) is looking like one of the best bets for today.

• Portland has lost 7 of the past 8 meetings
• Portland is 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee
• Portland is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Monday games
• Giannis Antetokounmpo has not lost 3 straight reg. season games since Mar. 2018