The Chicago White Sox (58-38) and the Milwaukee Brewers (56-41) meet up to begin a three-game series on Friday, and it’s the only time these clubs will meet all season. Well, at least in the regular season — with the way both are playing, it’s not far-fetched to think of this as a potential World Series preview. Chicago has been the much hotter team of late, winning eight of 10 versus Milwaukee’s recent 5-5 record, but both teams have the ability to get hot at any moment. They split four games last year, and the home team won all four.
Free Picks: Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers
Star-studded pitching matchup brings run total down
If you love a good pitching matchup, the White Sox and Brewers have something exciting in store for you on Friday night. If you’re more interested in offensive outbursts, you might have to look elsewhere.
Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (8-6, 3.90 ERA) faces Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.39) in a game that has the run total set at just 7.5, which is tied for the lowest of the night. The visiting White Sox are +110 money line underdogs (10Bet) among the day’s MLB picks, while the Brewers serve as -132 money line favorites, despite winning just three of their past eight.
It’s rare to see the White Sox as underdogs, whether they’re on the road or at home. But It’s also rare to see them face a team like the Brewers, who they’ve yet to do battle with this season. Both teams are coming off unexpected results against weak American League Central opponents, as the White Sox split a four-game series with the Twins and the Brewers dropped both of their games against the Royals.
Now, two of the top starters in Chicago and Milwaukee’s respective rotations are on the hill. Giolito, who threw a no-hitter last season, is coming off a complete game three-hitter his last time out, in which he struck out and walked none while allowing one run. In his lone career start against the Brewers, which came last season, he got the win: six innings, four hits, two runs and nine strikeouts.
Peralta has never started against the White Sox, but that’s likely in their best interest. The 25-year-old is seemingly getting better by the year, and in his fourth season he earned a spot on the NL All-Star team. He only has two wins in his past seven starts, but his 52 strikeouts and 2.40 ERA in that span show there’s nothing to be worried about.
Giolito is coming off a better start, undoubtedly, but Peralta’s season-long numbers are better. So how about the offenses? Well, that’s where there’s actually a bit of a gap.
Over the past 15 days, the White Sox rank fourth in the majors in team OPS (.868), averaging four and a half extra-base hits per game. The Brewers are down at 17th in the majors in that timeframe (.721 OPS), with just over two extra-base hits per game.
We don’t expect either offense to have a field day in this one, but the disparity in their recent production helps us lean toward the White Sox in this BetPicks prediction. Consider them on the money line, as well as the under on that 7.5-run total.
- Chicago is 7-3 on the money line in its past 10
- The OVER has cashed in six of the White Sox’s past 10 games
- Milwaukee is 5-5 on the money line in its past 10
- The UNDER has cashed in seven of the Brewers’ past 10 games
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Jordan Horrobin is a freelance sports journalist based in Toronto, Ontario, who enjoys sports-related research and telling engaging stories. His work can also be found at Sportsnet, Forbes and elsewhere. Though he abandoned most of his team-specific fandoms in the interest of unbiased analysis, Jordan roots hard for his fantasy football/hockey teams (and he's a complete homer for all things Ohio University).
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