Free Picks: Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds

Jordan Horrobin
Jordan Horrobin
MLB Free Picks – Best Bets of the Week
Twins vs Reds Week 19
Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds, MLB, Great American Ball Park

The Minnesota Twins (44-62) will face the Cincinnati Reds (56-50) to open up a two-game set on Tuesday, which will be the third of four games between these teams in 2021. Don’t expect any postseason matchups between these two, as the Twins are virtually locks to miss out on the October action. Cincinnati is also not likely to make the playoffs, but they’ve been on a bit of a run lately, winning five of six and seven of 10. The Reds took two of three of the Twins last year, and the teams have split their first two games so far this year.

Mahle trying to keep Reds’ hot streak running

With two full months of baseball’s sixth-month season remaining, the Twins unfortunately have very little to play for. That’s why they were sellers at the recent trade deadline, parting with players such as Jose Berrios and J.A. Happ.

The Reds’ playoff hopes are a bit dim, but not totally dead. And they’re rolling right now, which makes them the rightful -147 money line favorites (10Bet) on the day’s MLB picks. Minnesota, an overmatched bunch, sits as +120 money line underdogs (10Bet).

We’ll save you a bit of drama here and say we’re liking the Reds in this BetPicks prediction. Not only have they won five of six, but starter Tyler Mahle (8-3, 3.71 ERA) is the type of guy you want to put your money behind. His lone start against the Twins this season wasn’t his best work — a no-decision, in which he allowed three runs on five hits and three walks while striking out eight — but since then he’s put together some strong performances. Most recently, he tossed six scoreless innings against the Cubs.

The Twins have hardly succeeded regardless of what ballpark they’ve played in this year, but their efforts on the road (20-32) have been particularly bleak. They started their current road trip but dropping two of three in St. Louis; overall, the Twins have lost six of their past eight.

With our money line prediction set, why not look at the run total? It’s set at nine runs. We’re interested in the over (-109 at 10Bet) for a few reasons.

For one thing, the Reds’ offense has been lethal this season. They rank sixth in team OPS (.756) on the season, and they’ve been even hotter of late: in the past week, Cincinnati has a .933 OPS as a group, which leads the league.

Secondly, both matchups in this season series between Minnesota and Cincinnati hit the over. Those games had run totals of 12 and 17 runs, respectively. And lastly, the Twins have seen a strong trend of the over hitting lately, with five of their past six games exceeding the estimated run total.

So, we like the Reds and we like the over on the run total. Together, that can make for a decent foundation of a parlay.

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  • Minnesota is 6-4 on the money line in its past 10
  • The OVER has cashed in five of the Twins’ past six games
  • Cincinnati is 4-6 on the money line in its past 10
  • The OVER has cashed in five of the Reds’ past 10 games

Jordan Horrobin is a freelance sports journalist based in Toronto, Ontario, who enjoys sports-related research and telling engaging stories. His work can also be found at Sportsnet, Forbes and elsewhere. Though he abandoned most of his team-specific fandoms in the interest of unbiased analysis, Jordan roots hard for his fantasy football/hockey teams (and he's a complete homer for all things Ohio University).