Free Picks: Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox

The Detroit Tigers (52-57) face the Boston Red Sox (63-45) for the second of three games on Wednesday, and the Red Sox should almost be looking at this series as a must-win for their playoff hopes. Boston just lost five of its past seven games against divisional opponents (Rays and Blue Jays), and they’ll follow this series with another four-game set in Toronto. Feasting on a Tigers team that they defeated twice in three tries in Detroit earlier this year is a must.

Casey Mize has a couple of good things going for him right now: first off, his most recent start was stellar; and secondly, his most recent start against the Red Sox was pretty great, too.

Mize allowed just a lone unearned run in seven innings last time out against Baltimore, and when he last faced the Red Sox on May 5 he allowed just a run over six innings. He’s looking the part of an ace these days, with a 3.21 ERA over his past seven starts, and he might just be the key to help the Tigers take down the mighty Red Sox.

Following Tuesday’s 4-2 win over Boston, Detroit still finds itself as a +135 money line underdog (10Bet) for the day’s MLB picks. The Red Sox, who’ve suddenly lost five in a row and six of seven, maintain the faith of oddsmakers as -167 money line favorites (10Bet).

It was easier to look the other way when Boston lost four in a row against the Rays and Blue Jays, a pair of teams with playoff dreams and strong enough lineups to back that up. But losing to the Tigers? That type of upset is more glaring, and there’s no reason it can’t happen on back-to-back nights.

Especially when we look at the pitching matchup. You’ve heard a bit about Mize, who’s been quite effective in recent weeks, but how about Boston’s starter? Eduardo Rodriguez (7-6, 5.60) is far from a top-of-the-rotation guy, and he’s coming off an outing in which he allowed six runs on seven hits and four walks in just 3 1/3 innings.

It’s fair to note that Rodriguez has won his past three starts against Detroit, allowing a single run in each while pitching at least five innings. But none of those starts have come in the past two seasons, which changes the equation a tad.

The Red Sox are a team that, more than anything, is slumping at the plate right now. They’ve scored just 18 runs in their past seven games (in the same span, the Tigers have scored 44 runs). If Wednesday night’s game is another low-scoring pitchers’ duel, Boston just won’t have the advantage.

That’s why we’re comfortable rolling with the underdog Tigers in this BetPicks prediction. The Red Sox’s offense won’t be held down forever, but Mize is not the pitcher we expect to help them heat back up. So for now, enjoy the value Detroit has on money line against a struggling Boston bunch.

• Detroit is 5-5 on the money line in its past 10
• The UNDER has cashed in six of the Tigers’ past nine games
• Boston is 3-7 on the money line in its past 10
• The UNDER has cashed in seven of the Red Sox’s past 10 games