Free Picks: Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians

Jordan Horrobin
By: Jordan Horrobin
07/09/2021
MLB Free Picks – Best Bets of the Week
Royals vs Indians Week 15
Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians, MLB, Progressive Field

The Kansas City Royals (36-51) will face the Cleveland Indians (43-42) to continue a four-game series on Friday, and the time is now for Cleveland to kick things back into gear. The Indians had lost nine in a row, matching their longest losing skid since 2012, prior to a walk-off win on Thursday night in the series opener. The Royals have been the weaker team this season, and in this particular matchup — Cleveland has won six of seven — but at least Kansas City has won three of its past seven games.

Despite losing streak, Indians remain home favorites vs. Royals

Amid their season-worst losing streak, which extended into Thursday night’s action, Indians players and managers have said the types of things they’re supposed to say: that the current skid is not a time to feel sorry for themselves, and that they’ve emerge from it together. Those platitudes are nice and all, but they do little for prospective bettors, who want to know if Friday will be the day Cleveland can truly start to bounce back.

After Thursday’s win, Cleveland is in the favor of the oddsmakers again as -141 money line favorites (10Bet) among the day’s MLB picks. Kansas City, who’s now lost six in a row against the Indians, serve as +120 money line underdogs (10Bet)

The positive trend for Cleveland in this particular matchup is important, but there’s more to know under the surface. Most of these matchups have been tight, and five of the Indians’ six wins against the Royals were credited to a reliever. Cleveland’s lone starter win against Kansas City belongs to Triston McKenzie, who just so happens to be on the mound Friday night.

In some ways, McKenzie’s five innings of two-hit, shutout ball against the Royals back on May 6 might as well have happened a season ago. He has an 8.20 ERA in five starts since then, including a start on June 12 that lasted less than an inning and prompted a demotion to Triple-A. When he was sent down, McKenzie noted that he wasn’t used to pitching in front of so many people (over 20,000 were on hand). Perhaps that’s part of the reason he issues so many walks (39 in 42 1/3 innings).

His opponent, Brad Keller, isn’t entering Friday’s matchup with a stellar run of games lately, either. Keller has a 7.36 ERA in his past seven starts to go with a 1-5 record in that span. In his last start against Cleveland, which came in 2020, he allowed five runs in 6 2/3 innings in a losing effort.

All of this is to say that we aren’t very impressed by either starter, but at least McKenzie has some recent success against these Royals. And the Indians’ six-game win streak against the Royals is probably a good enough reason to roll with them, which is what we’ll do in this BetPicks prediction. The over on 9.5 runs (-115 at 10Bet) is also worth a look.

10bet review
FREE PICK: CLEVELAND INDIANS MONEY LINE
-141
10bet review
OVER 9.5 RUNS
-115

Stats

  • Kansas City is 6-4 on the money line in its past 10
  • The UNDER has cashed in four of the Royals past five games
  • Cleveland is 8-2 on the money line in its past 10
  • The OVER has cashed in five of the Indians past nine games

Jordan Horrobin is a freelance sports journalist based in Toronto, Ontario, who enjoys sports-related research and telling engaging stories. His work can also be found at Sportsnet, Forbes and elsewhere. Though he abandoned most of his team-specific fandoms in the interest of unbiased analysis, Jordan roots hard for his fantasy football/hockey teams (and he's a complete homer for all things Ohio University).

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TeamWLGB%
NY Yankee61250.0.709
Boston474014.5.540
Tampa Bay464015.0.535
Toronto454216.5.517
Baltimore434418.5.494

 

MLB - AL Central

TeamWLGB%
Minnesota48400.0.545
Cleveland42424.0.500
Chi White Sox41445.5.482
Detroit365111.5.414
Kansas City345213.0.395

 

MLB - AL West

TeamWLGB%
Houston56290.0.659
Seattle454212.0.517
Texas404415.5.476
LA Angels384919.0.437
Oakland295928.5.330

 

MLB - NL East

TeamWLGB%
NY Mets54330.0.621
Atlanta52362.5.591
Philadelphia46418.0.529
Miami414412.0.482
Washington305824.5.341

 

MLB - NL Central

TeamWLGB%
Milwaukee48390.0.552
St. Louis47422.0.528
Pittsburgh375011.0.425
Chi Cubs345213.5.395
Cincinnati325415.5.372

 

MLB - NL West

TeamWLGB%
LA Dodgers56290.0.659
San Diego50387.5.568
San Francisco434112.5.512
Arizona384818.5.442
Colorado384919.0.437

 

2021 Season Key Dates
Regular SeasonApril 1 – October 3
MLB DraftJuly 11-13
All-Star GameJuly 13
Trade DeadlineJuly 30
Playoffs BeginOctober 5
World SeriesOctober 26