Free Picks: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers vs Reds Week 16
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, Great American Ball Park

Milwaukee (54-39) heads to Cincinnati (48-43) for a three-game set. The Reds and Brewers are top teams in the NL Central and are both vying for a playoff spot. The Brewers will start Brandon Woodruff, while the Reds counter with Luis Castillo. The RHP Castillo has silenced Milwaukee earlier in the season, so can he challenge them one more time on Saturday?

Can Milwaukee expose a pitcher with a high ERA?

The unofficial second half of the regular season is upon us and this weekend opens with two NL Central squads aiming to reach the postseason. 

Milwaukee currently sits atop the NL Central, while the Reds are second in the division. The Brewers have a decent lead on the Reds (5 games) but that could easily be challenged this weekend. 

Friday night, the Brewers handled Cincinnati with ease and look to keep rolling on Saturday. 

Looking at this game, it’s clear that the Reds are not sending out one of their top pitchers. Luis Castillo is 3-10 on the season with a 4.65 ERA. The RHP has shown promise in the past but has been shelled this season. 

Opposite to Castillo is another RHP. Brandon Woodruff is 7-4 on the year with a staggering 2.06 ERA. 

I think for this BetPicks Prediction, the pitching match-up reveals a hint into the future of this game. With Castillo’s high ERA, I think the play will be the Brewers Total Runs. 

Cincinnati has proven before that they can defeat the Brewers and I am not sold on the Moneyline for either side. The Reds are swinging a hot bat, but we know Milwaukee can heat up at any time. 

 This is why taking the Brewers’ Total Runs over 4 (-115) will be your best MLB bet for this game. 

Milwaukee is one of the highest-scoring teams in the National League and they are menaces with home runs. That combination alone is enough to impress me. 

 The Brewers average 4.3 runs per game, which bodes well thanks to Castillo’s high ERA. If the Brewers can average nearly 5 runs per game against MLB pitching, I can only imagine what happens Saturday when Milwaukee faces Castillo. 

Castillo has pitched well against Milwaukee this season, but I don’t see that trend continuing. There is a reason he has a high ERA this season. Cincinnati’s bullpen is decent as well, so I expect a run or maybe two out of them. 

The bulk of runs needs to come off Castillo. If Milwaukee can muster at least 3 runs of Castillo before he exits the game, I think this bet cashes for this expert MLB pick 

Let’s bank on the Brewers doing damage on Saturday.

Stats

  • Milwaukee averages 4.32 runs per game on the road this season.
  • Castillo’s ERA of 4.65 is the highest of his career currently.
  • Milwaukee scored 11 runs on Cincinnati Friday night.

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have always wanted to be a writer and sports are my favorite thing in the world, so I combined the two to make a career. I have been a long-time gambler and sports betting writer that isn't afraid to look at the underdog or specials. I am covering the NHL, MLB and NCAA Football for BetPicks.ca and am a huge fan of both sports - as well as many others. Follow me on Twitter @Patrick_Trudeau so we can talk betting, sports, or why ketchup DOES belong on Poutine.

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