Free Picks: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

Boston has proven on several occasions that the Tampa Bay Rays are not threats to them. But every losing streak must come to an end and I want to take a look at one of the best offenses in the sport. The Rays are scientists at the plate and are facing a starting pitcher with a high ERA, so I am thinking total runs for this bet.

Thanks to Tuesday’s loss, the Tampa Bay Rays are now 0-4 against the Red Sox this season. Tampa Bay’s failure to execute against Boston is the reason they find themselves sitting in second for the AL East. 

Tuesday night, the Rays and Red Sox opened up a three-game set, with game 1 going to Boston. Wednesday night is another chance for Tampa Bay to prove its worth with some of the best professional baseball has to offer.  

For this BetPicks Prediction, the first thing I notice is that both starting pitchers have high ERAs. Garrett Richards is getting the start for Boston and is currently 4-4 with a 4.36 ERA.  

Opposite of Richards is Rich Hill. The lefty has a decent W/L record and strikeout numbers, but his 3.64 ERA could be brought down a smidge. 

While the over/under is rather enticing, I think focusing on the Rays’ total runs is the play. 

As mentioned, Richards has a relatively high ERA, which is music to the ears of Tampa Bay. The Rays are the third highest-scoring team in the American League and are atop some of baseball’s best metrics. 

At the dish, Tampa Bay are savages and I think they can knock Richards around Tropicana. If Richards gets hit often and hard, I am not that worried about Boston’s bullpen, either. 

Red Sox relievers currently have an ERA of 4.21 and have also hit 35 batters. Right now, Red Sox relievers aren’t dominant but are certainly passable. If Tampa Bay manages 2-3 runs against Richards, I believe we can win this bet. 

The bullpen has done their job on occasions, but they will certainly allow runs. Boston might be looking at additional bullpen help at the trade deadline, but for this MLB prediction, their passable bullpen is the reason we’re going to take the over in Tampa Bay total runs. 

Boston has had Tampa Bay’s number all season, but Richards sketches me out. Couple that with a bullpen that is okay and a Rays’ lineup that can swing the bat and I think we take the over as my expert MLB pick.

• The over is 4-0 for Rays in last 4 games against RHP. 
• Tampa Bay are 51-18 in last 69 games as home favorite. 
• Richards has allowed 6 earned runs in last 3 starts against Tampa Bay.
• Tampa Bay ranks 9th in total offense.