Free Picks: San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds

San Diego is by-far one of the best teams in the National League. And head-to-head against the Reds, the Padres have dominated Cincinnati. Thursday evening could prove to be different, but all signs point to the Padres maintaining their winning ways against Cinncinati. With Luis Castillo on the mound, can he help the Reds earn their first victory against San Diego in 2021?

Cincinnati is fighting for a playoff position through the NL Central, but have taken two straight losses to the San Diego Padres. Thursday evening, the Reds look to steal a victory back from the Padres. 

The Reds have lost 6 straight to San Diego this season, but I am wary of taking the Padres straight up for this MLB prediction. I know all streaks come to an end, so will Thursday be the blip that favors Cincinnati?  

Going into Thursday’s game, the Reds are trotting out Luis Castillo, who has struggled mightily this season. Castillo is 3-10 with a 5.14 ERA and is on pace to have the worst season of his career. Through 16 games started, he has a higher ERA than his second season in professional baseball, which was his highest at the time.  

Ryan Weathers gets the start for this game and is chucking this season. The lefty is 3-2 with a solid 2.47 ERA. Weathers is currently in Triple-A El Paso but has been recalled due to an injury to Dinelson Lamet. 

For this expert MLB pick, I think taking an alternate runline for the Padres makes the most sense. The main runline is at -1.5 (10Bet) but I want to be safer and take San Diego -1 at +115. 

I think San Diego can win this game straight up, but don’t like the value of the Moneyline (+110). Instead, taking the Padres -1 makes the most sense for this free MLB pick.  

Weathers making the jump back up to the show from Triple-A doesn’t worry me because he has already found success. On top of that, a struggling Castillo is on the mound and the Padres are monsters at the dish. 

I trust San Diego to handle Cincinnati in this one, and I think taking an alternate line will payout.

• The Reds are 19-20 at home this season. 
• Cincinnati are 17-22 against the spread at home this season. 
• San Diego are 11-1 in last 12 games straight up. 
• The Padres are 42-23 as the favourite this season.