Free Picks: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds

Cubs vs Reds Week 5
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds, MLB, Great American Ball Park

If there is one positive to the slow start for the Cubs and Reds, it’s that they haven’t had trouble scoring. Chicago has put up a respectable amount of runs to open the season, while Cincinnati are one of the highest-scoring teams in the MLB. With that knowledge, I take a look at the total runs for this NL Central duel.

Chicago and Cincy need to turn Ls into Ws.

Both the Cubs and Reds are failing miserably to open the 2021 campaign. Chicago have lost 5 straight games, while the Reds have only two wins in their last nine games.

Like with every MLB prediction, the first thing I do is look at the pitching match-up. On the rubber for the visiting Cubs will be Jake Arrieta. This season, Arrieta is 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 26 strikeouts. I think Arrieta’s numbers are solid and give me a glimpse into a potential bet for this game.

Opposite of Chicago will be left-handed pitcher Wade Miley. He also has a respectable ERA at 2.45 on the year and has gone at least 5 innings in all 4 starts this season.

While neither pitcher’s ERA is in space, I want to take a look at the bullpens as well. I am leaning towards betting on total runs, but I need to be confident that neither bullpen will ruin my free MLB pick.

Cincinnati’s reliever ERA is 5.57, while the Cubs’ reliever ERA is 4.01. I was looking at the under in total runs, but once Miley and Arrieta are chased from the game, scoring could get out of hand.

Cincinnati is also one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, with 129 runs in 25 games. The Cubs are ranked 13th in the MLB with 108 runs for, which is better than teams like San Diego, Minnesota, and Toronto.

I really want to take the under, but this contest has all signs pointing to the over. I am very confident in this bet. Cincinnati and Chicago are both high-scoring teams. The cherry on top is their both teams’ relievers aren’t exactly tearing up professional baseball.

I think taking the over is the smart move for this BetPicks prediction.

Stats

  • The total has gone over in 6 of the Cubs’ last 7 games in Cincinnati
  • The total has gone over in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 10 games at home.
  • Chicago and Cincinnati combine for 10.20 runs per game over last 10.

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have always wanted to be a writer and sports are my favorite thing in the world, so I combined the two to make a career. I have been a long-time gambler and sports betting writer that isn't afraid to look at the underdog or specials. I am covering the NHL, MLB and NCAA Football for BetPicks.ca and am a huge fan of both sports - as well as many others. Follow me on Twitter @Patrick_Trudeau so we can talk betting, sports, or why ketchup DOES belong on Poutine.

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