Free Picks: Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds

Brewers vs Reds Week 8
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds, MLB, Great American Ball Park

The Milwaukee Brewers (21-22) will face the Cincinnati Reds (19-23) to begin a three-game series on Friday, in the first of a whopping 19 games between these National League Central division foes this season. Both teams enter the opening matchup cold: Milwaukee has lost five of its past six games, as well as three consecutive series; Cincinnati has lost four in a row and seven of 10. In their season series last year, the Reds took six games out of 10 off the Brewers.

Ho-hum matchup between Brewers, Reds still brings value

We know, we know. A matchup between two sub-.500 teams in the midst of cold streaks is not the most rousing game to lock into for a Friday night. But hear us out, because it shouldn’t take much to turn this game into one of great interest for prospective bettors.

On the surface, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds are both difficult teams to bet on right now, as they’ve both taken a tumble in the standings recently. On the money line, the visiting Brewers are +120 favorites (10Bet) on the day’s MLB picks, while the Reds lags as +100 underdogs (10Bet).

That’s … a bit juicy, from the Reds’ side of things, when you consider recent history. Cincinnati won four of its final five matchups against Milwaukee last season — including two of three at home — and Milwaukee’s Friday starter, Adrian Houser, has faced nothing but futility against the Reds in his past.

Houser is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in four career starts against Cincinnati, all since 2019. Last season, he lost both starts against the Reds and failed to complete five innings either time. He’s also coming off a rough outing, last Friday against the Braves, in which he walked five and gave up two runs in just three innings of work.

This is not to say that Cincinnati’s Friday starter, Jeff Hoffman, has been much better. He hasn’t made it past the fourth inning in any of his past four starts, and he’s got a 5.16 ERA over his past seven. He only has one recent start against the Brewers, in 2019, and he pitched fairly well in five innings (two runs allowed on two hits and three walks).

Where we see the difference makers are on the offensive side of things. The Reds are fifth in the majors in team OPS (.750), while the Brewers are way down at 27th (.654). That’s right, they are separated by nearly 100 points in one of the most prescriptive offensive categories in baseball — that’s huge.

This might not be a very well-pitched game. And by looking at the standings, it might not be the most compelling game to tune into at first glimpse. But if you take the underdog Reds, at home with +100 money line odds, you might just find a compelling reason to tune in. So yes, the Reds are our BetPicks prediction, and with them you have a chance to double your money.

Stats

  • Milwaukee is 4-6 on the money line in its past 10
  • The UNDER has cashed in five of the Brewers’ past nine games
  • Cincinnati is 3-7 on the money line in its past 10
  • The OVER has cashed in six of the Reds’ past 10 games

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Jordan Horrobin is a freelance sports journalist based in Toronto, Ontario, who enjoys sports-related research and telling engaging stories. His work can also be found at Sportsnet, Forbes and elsewhere. Though he abandoned most of his team-specific fandoms in the interest of unbiased analysis, Jordan roots hard for his fantasy football/hockey teams (and he's a complete homer for all things Ohio University). You can follow Jordan on Twitter at @JordanHorrobin

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