BetPicks

Free Picks: Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Patrick Trudeau
By:
Patrick Trudeau
time icon
05/01/2021
MLB Free Picks – Best Bets of the Week
Astros vs Rays Week 5
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays, MLB, Tropicana Field

Bitten by bad luck, I take a look at which team has the potential to win straight up in this game. Houston and Tampa Bay are even in several stats, so small intricacies were the difference-maker for this wager. Will I cash out with the underdog, or should I play it safe and take the favourite?

When everything is even, do you take the underdog?

Entering this afternoon game between the Astros and Rays, Houston and Tampa Bay are relatively even in several statistics. With that knowledge, it certainly impacts this MLB prediction. 

Starting with record, the Rays and Astros are even in that regard. With that being said, Houston has a good advantage over the Rays in team hits. All in all, there isn’t much to differentiate between the Rays and Astros. 

However, one thing that can dramatically impact not only MLB regular season odds, but my BetPicks Predictions is the starting pitching matchup. Between the Rays’ and Astros’ projected starters, I think one team has a slight advantage. 

Lefty-pitcher Josh Fleming is 1-2 on the season, but has a 1.23 ERA and 8 strikeouts. Fleming has been excellent this season, despite what his record shows. Fleming’s ERA could drastically change the outcome of this game.  

Opposite of Fleming is RHP Jose Urquidy. This season, he has a 4.67 ERA with 22 strikeouts on the year. Houston is 2-3 when Urquidy is on the mound, so that could greatly impact the Moneyline. 

I think Fleming’s pitching record, coupled with the Rays’ odds provide great value for a potential steal. The Rays are considered underdogs in this one, so I think we could see great return with a Tampa Bay victory. 

What gives me confidence in a potential underdog victory is that the Astros have been streaky this season. They have also taken L’s to some pretty bad competition. Houston took losses to the Detroit Tigers on consecutive nights, so the Rays should be able to take a victory at home. 

Pitching is the ultimate equalizer. With Fleming on the bump, I think his talent will be enough to take a victory from the visiting Astros. Houston and Tampa Bay are relatively even, so I think we have to with the value in this

Stats

  • The Rays are 6-5 as the underdog this season. 
  • Tampa Bay are 8-2 in last 10 against Houston at home. 
  • Houston are 10-11 as the favourites this season.
  • The Astros are 2-4 in last 6 games on the road.
Tags:

    More MLB Free Picks

    see more
    Patrick Trudeau

    have always wanted to be a writer and sports are my favorite thing in the world, so I combined the two to make a career. I have been a long-time gambler and sports betting writer that isn't afraid to look at the underdog or specials. I am covering the NHL, MLB and NCAA Football for BetPicks.ca and am a huge fan of both sports - as well as many others. Follow me on Twitter (@Patrick_Trudeau) so we can talk betting, sports, or why ketchup DOES belong on Poutine.

    All Reviews by Patrick Trudeau