Free Picks: Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trailblazers

The Golden State Warriors started this season off like a sinking ship with the big losses, both in terms of scores and players, but they’ve managed to gain some level of buoyancy in the ensuing few games, putting up back-to-back wins before falling in embarrassing fashion to the Blazers on Friday in their last contest, a 123-98 loss. The Blazers, meanwhile, seem to be finding a bit of a groove, having won three of their past four despite several key injuries.

As part of this COVID-shortened season, the NBA made the decision to alter the way their schedule works so as to limit the travelling each team will do during the campaign, and therefore the amount of new contacts they make along the way. One of the alterations they made to their schedules is to have teams stay in the same city and play the same team twice in a row at their home court in a few days.

On Friday, the Blazers arrived at Chase Center and dominated the Warriors in a 20+ point win and here we are two days later with the same teams going at it again. It’s almost like the playoffs, but not really. The Blazers are the better team this season, and there’s simply no way that an average-at-best defender like Steph Curry can put the clamps on the Damian Lillard/CJ McCollum duo with the current help he’s got.

Not to mention that defensive stopper and ultimate glue guy Draymond Green is still on a minutes limit and so will therefore be unable to contribute at his full capacity. If Green’s at full strength, you’re reading a different article and watching a different game. Rookie James Wiseman should be back for the Dubs, but he hasn’t been a game-changer through his first few games. With all of this in mind, we like the Blazers to cover the 5-point spread at solid -109 odds on 22Bet.

Another bet we like for this contest—the over on the game’s total points prop, which sits at 233.5 points and -112 odds on 22Bet—can be parlayed with our spread pick to earn yourself some juicy +265 odds on the double. The Blazers are playing their third game in four days so they’ll be a little tired, and the Warriors are already slacking a ton on defense anyways.

Not only that, but we’re already dealing with the worst (Warriors, 124.0) and the eighth-worst (Blazers, 115.8) defenses in the league in terms of points allowed per game. And the fact that the best defensive player from either team, Green, will be on a strict minutes limit only exacerbates the defensive issues here.

We’ve also got encouraging signs from the number gods coming from the Northwest. Portland games have hit the over in four straight games against teams with losing records, seven of the last eight games when they come in as the favorite, and 13 of the past sixteen games following a game when the Blazers cover the spread. Four of the past five matchups between these teams have hit the over, and with these two woeful defenses, we’d expect these trends to keep chugging along when all is said and done at the Chase Center.

• The OVER has hit in 4 of the past 5 meetings
• The OVER has hit in 7 of Portland’s last 8 games as a favorite
• Golden State is 0-4 in their last four outings as an underdog
• The OVER has hit in the last 4 straight games in which Portland played a team below .500 SU