Free Picks: Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors

The Phoenix Suns are having a rough go of it lately, to put it politely. After an encouraging 6-2 start to backup their impressive 8-0 showing in the bubble last summer, the young Suns have flipped it and gone 2-6 in their last eight. They’ll be welcoming the 10-8 Golden State Warriors, who were wallopping the pitiful Minnesota Timberwolves late into Wednesday night at Oracle Arena, to Phoenix on Thursday evening.

The Suns, meanwhile, finished up a 102-97 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder early on Wednesday night in Phoenix, so they will be much more rested than their counterparts, who will be flying in from the Bay. The fact that both teams both played the night before bodes well for the Suns considering they have gone 3-1 against the spread on no rest this season while the Dubs have gone 1-1 in the same situations.

Another encouraging sign for Phoenix was Devin Booker—who is nursing a hamstring injury—getting some shots up before Wednesday’s game. The Suns have lost both games without their leading scorer, failing to score 100 in regulation in either, so the return of Booker would be a big boost.

For the Warriors, winning their second straight game on Wednesday night can almost be seen as bittersweet considering the trend they’ve been on all season: Golden State has not gone on a three-game winning streak all season. They haven’t had a three-game losing skid either, for that matter. The ATS head-to-head battle has also shown a pattern, with the Dubs covering in the past three meetings, the Suns in the three before that, and Golden State again in the three before that.

The Suns are hoping for those patterns to continue because they could really use a win right now. While Phoenix has had trouble finishing games off over the past couple of weeks, they have not been getting beaten down by teams: of the past seven games they’ve lost, three were dropped in overtime, and another three were defeats of five or less points.

That stretch included back-to-back overtime losses to the Denver Nuggets late last week. The Suns are due for some lucky bounces, and their time should be coming on Thursday night against Golden State. We’re going to take the Phoenix Suns’ straight-up moneyline at -111 odds on 22Bet as one of our top picks of the day.

The second of our NBA picks for this game is a player point prop for Golden State’s resident Chef, Steph Curry. The Warriors beat up on the T-Wolves on Wednesday night—their second straight against Minnesota—though it had little to do with Curry’s scoring. Though he did hand out eight dimes, he managed just 16 points on 35 percent shooting from the field for the night. The Chef is known to cook up something special after serving up a stinker like that, averaging 31.3 points per game in his past eight contests following a night where he put up less than 20 points and shot 35 percent or worse from the floor.

Because of Golden State’s late finish on Wednesday night and the uncertainty surrounding Booker, odds will not be available on player props until closer to game time, but in general oddsmakers place these numbers around the player’s season or month average, so for Curry we’d think it would be at 29.5 points. We’re expecting him to put up at least 30 points in the desert on Thursday night, so go with the over on Curry’s player points prop.

• Golden State has covered the spread in 7 of its last 31 Thursday games
• Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite
• Golden State has gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog
• Steph Curry has averaged 31.3 points in his last 8 games following a sub 20-point, 35% shooting night