NBA Best Parlay of Week 3

We started the season off hot with a perfect Christmas Day parlay, but we fell flat on New Year’s Eve, hitting on just one of our three picks (1-1 parlays, 4-2 overall picks), so we’ll look to start 2021 off right with a bounce back parlay for the third week of NBA action. This week’s Thursday slate is offering up some solid value for overs bettors, so we’ll be taking those in Nets vs. Sixers as well as Cavs vs. Grizz to pair with a cover from the defending champion Lakers against the Spurs.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets

January 7th, 7:30pm, Barclays Center

The Nets proved that they definitely do not need Kevin Durant to win and score boatloads of points with their wire-to-wire 130-96 win over the Utah Jazz in their last game. The Sixers are allowing the second-fewest points per game in the NBA so far (101.7) but they haven’t come up against an offense like Brooklyn’s, even if it is short one Durantula: only the Milwaukee Bucks are scoring more than Brooklyn’s 119.5 points per game this season. After hitting the under in their first four games of the season, the Nets have hit the over in three of their past four, including going over a 240+ point total on two separate occasions.

76ers over bettors have been more hard-pressed to win one this season, with Philly hitting the under in six of seven games. However, considering the fact that Philly is going up against the second-best offense in the NBA on the road in their third game in four nights, this contest seems like a good time for the Philly boys to take a night off on the defensive end. We’re going to take our chances betting on Irving and LeVert and company to put up big enough numbers against the tired likes of Simmons and Embiid to cover us on a Game Total Points Over 224.5 prop with -110 odds to start our parlay off.

Pick: Game Total Points Over 224.5 Points (-110, 22Bet)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies

January 7th, 8:00pm, FedExForum

The Grizzlies have been struggling to score since losing star and leader Ja Morant to a sprained ankle, scoring no more than 108 points in the four games since the Murray State product went down. This may seem like a preamble for an under pick—but you’re dead wrong. The Grizzlies (and the Cavaliers for that matter) have been so poor on offense to start the season that sportsbooks have lowered the over/under number for this contest to just 213.5, which is lower than any over/under number for any game in which either team has participated this season.

What that means is that this matchup is primed for a surprise over, so we’re adding the Game Total Points Over 213.5 prop at tasty -105 odds to our Thursday parlay. Adding to the argument for the over is the fact that the Grizzlies will be playing their third game in five days, and the Cavs their third in four days. Contrary to popular opinion, players slack off on defense and not offense when they’re tired. This belief is evidenced by the fact that the Cavaliers have gone over the total in seven of their past eight games on zero days’ rest.

Pick: Game Total Points Over 213.5 (-105, 22Bet)

San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers

January 7th, 10:00pm, Staples Center

The Spurs have been one of the best teams against the spread this season, going 5-2 against the sportsbooks and oddsmakers so far this year. They’ve also gone 1-1 ATS against the defending champs, though they lost both games  straight up. That one ATS win against the Lakers last week is more of an exception to L.A.’s recent dominance of the Spurs: the Lakers had covered the spread against the Spurs four straight times before that ATS loss. Since Anthony Davis’ arrival at the start of last season, he and LeBron James have owned Gregg Popovich and his Spurs, and we’d expect that dominance to continue on Thursday night.

Expect Davis and Montrezl Harrell to go to work down-low against a Spurs frontcourt that’s devoid of a true rim protector and is giving up 48.6 points per game in the paint, 11th-most in the league. It’s well-known that LeBron’s love for the fast break is contagious on any team he’s a part of, and this one’s no different, as evidenced by their 16.4 fast break points per game (sixth in the NBA). Considering that San Antonio is giving up the second-most points on the break (16.9) during this young campaign, you can expect the King to have some fun in transition on Thursday night. Take the Lakers to cover the -8.5 point spread and continue their recent dominance of Pop and company.

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers –8.5 Point Spread (-111, 22Bet)

We crashed back down to earth with a 1-2 mark last Thursday after going a perfect 3-0 on our first parlay, so we’re looking to get back to our winning ways this week. If the Nets and Sixers put up big numbers at Barclays, the Cavs and Grizz overachieve offensively in Memphis, and the Lakers get their groove back against Pop and the Spurs, we’ll be cashing out come Friday morning thanks to our tasty Week 3 NBA Parlay. Godspeed and good luck. Let’s get this bread.