Free Picks: Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat

Don’t expect the Brooklyn Nets to stop scoring anytime soon—but don’t expect them to start playing any semblance of defense anytime soon either. When the Nets traded Jarrett Allen to the Cleveland Cavaliers—to whom the Nets lost two straight last week—as part of the James Harden deal, Brooklyn was pretty much raising the white flag on defense. DeAndre Jordan was a great rim protector in his day—but that day is not today.

Jordan’s turning 33 this summer and his best years are behind him, so if Brooklyn’s going to turn this thing around on the defensive end, they’ll have to go with an outside hire. They should be active shoppers in the buyout market but whoever they do get end up getting isn’t there yet, so for the time being Brooklyn’s defense will be of the turnstile variety—especially down low with the Miami Heat’s Bam Adebayo coming back for seconds after dropping 41 on Brooklyn last time out on Saturday.

The scintillating offense paired with the absent defense have combined to make Brooklyn an over bettors wet dream: they’ve hit the over in ten straight. It may seem like pushing our luck to bet on it happening again, but there haven’t been any changes in the roster or time for head coach Steve Nash to implement new defensive schemes. Just to be safe, we’ll go with an alternative total play: the Game Total Alternative Points Over 234.5 prop at -115 odds on 22Bet is one of our top picks of the day.

The more numbers you look at, the more this is going to seem like one of the best NBA picks on the slate for Monday evening. The last game between these teams on Saturday blew past the total with 252 points. It’s not even just the Nets—the Heat have also hit the over in six of their past eight games.

In the five games since Brooklyn rounded out its Big Three with the Beard, the average total has been 251.4. Seven of Brooklyn’s past eight games have finished with totals over 235 points, including the last five straight. With Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving all capable of getting into a groove and putting up video game numbers on any given night, a night when two or all three of them are on their games won’t be a rarity. In the two contests that the trio has played together, the games have averaged 267 points.

Since Harden’s arrival, the Nets have been averaging 124.6 points per game, and they’re just getting acclimated with each other, so that number could continue to climb. Night in and night out, you know what you’re getting with the uber-talented Nets offense. And you can say the same about their low-quality defensive effort: Brooklyn has been giving up 126.8 points per game over their last five outings. The Nets have absolutely no offense-defense balance, but they are consistent as they come on both ends.

• The OVER has hit in Brooklyn’s last 10 straight games
• The OVER is 5-0 in Miami’s past 5 games following a SU loss
• The OVER has hit in 6 of Miami’s past 8 games
• The OVER is 7-0 in Brooklyn’s past 7 games following an ATS loss
• The average total of Brooklyn’s past 5 games is 251.4