With all but two of the NFL’s 32 teams having played four of their 16 regular season games, we’re already a quarter of the way through the 2020 campaign. And to nobody who’s watched any of the action’s surprise, it’s Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson who has emerged as the unquestioned MVP favorite.
He’s still got pretty good betting value too, with most oddsmakers, such as 888sports and Sports Interaction, putting his odds between 2.75 and 2.80 after four games. Wilson has had many a productive and successful season as the Seahawks’ signal-caller, putting up gaudy numbers on the stat sheet and in the standings, yet he has never been named the league’s Most Valuable Player.
Not only that, but he’s never even received a single vote for the award, which means that, somehow, he’s never even been in the conversation for an MVP award. That seems almost impossible with all the success he’s had in a nine-year career during which he has yet to miss a game.
Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, two former MVPs, sit just behind Wilson in the rankings with 4.00 odds while last year’s winner, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, has fallen to fifth in the early MVP rankings, with odds of 15.00 after four weeks.
If you’re looking for a dark horse that’s still offering big time value in the MVP race, look no further than third-year Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. There were always questions about the Wyoming product’s ability as a passer, especially his accuracy, coming out of college, and those questions persisted through his first two seasons.
Now in his third year it seems Allen has taken that next step, posting 331 yards per game, 15 total TDs against just one interception, a 71 completion percentage and a 122.7 passer rating through the first month. Allen’s Bills are also 4-0 in an AFC East that is open for the taking for the first time since Tom Brady strapped on the pads for the Patriots 20 years ago. Despite those eye-popping numbers, Allen currently sits in fourth in the MVP rankings at 12.00 odds on 888sports.
But while Allen has been having his breakout season, Wilson has somehow been even better. He’s turning opposing defenses into swiss cheese week in and week out thanks in large part to head coach Pete Carroll losing the ‘run-all-day’ mentality he’s had for much of Wilson’s career and allowing the offense to instead run through its poised pivot, which has resulted in a 4-0 record so far.
Wilson is third in passing yardage (1,285), and he completes a higher percentage of his passes (75.2, which is a ridiculous clip), gets more yards per throw (9.4), and has thrown more touchdown passes (16 against just two picks) than anyone in the league. He’s been sacked 11 times, but that hasn’t stopped him from putting up a league-best 136.2 passer rating.
With numbers like that, the 2.80 odds he’s getting on Sports Interaction almost seem like a bargain.