Best NCAA Football Parlay of Week 16

Last week we went 2-1, with only Miami’s shockingly embarrassing showing against UNC keeping us from a big payday. We’re now at 12-11 on overall picks and a tough 2-6 mark on our parlays for the season. To get us back in the win column before season’s end we’ve put together a parlay for this week where we’ll be expecting a shootout in the Big Ten Championship, another low-scoring affair between Air Force and Army, and to see the Tide continue to roll in the SEC Championship game.

No. 14 Northwestern Wildcats @ No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-20.5) (-111) (Betway)

December 19th, 12:00pm, Lucas Oil Stadium

Northwestern has had itself a marvelous season, running up a 6-1 record this year after finishing just 3-9 in 2019, but a Big Ten Championship still doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards for them. Sports betting sites are currently listing the Buckeyes as 20.5-point favorites on Saturday, and while the Buckeyes have covered in six straight, winning by three touchdowns could be a tall order against the Wildcats, even for Heisman hopeful Justin Fields and company.

Ohio State has been a scoring machine this year, putting up no less than 38 points in any game (including four 40+ point efforts), so what seems like a safer bet than the spread for our parlay is the over on the game’s total points, which is currently hovering at around 57. While Northwestern does have a stingy defense that should slow down Ryan Day’s Ohio State offense, we wouldn’t expect it to shut the Buckeyes down by any measure. It’ll be tougher, but the Buckeyes are still going to put up at least 30-40 points.

The Wildcats have played some relatively low-scoring games, but they’ve been able to score 20+ points themselves in six of their seven games this season, which would be more than enough to get us over the 57-point total if Fields and co. stick to their recent script. The over has also gone 3-0-1 for the Buckeyes over their past four games, and it’s hit in six of the past seven meetings between these two teams.

Pick: Game Total Points Over (57) (-105) (Betway)

Air Force Falcons (-2.5) (-115) (Betway) @ Army Black Knights

December 19th, 3:00pm, Michie Stadium

We’d been pretty unlucky picking unders for a few weeks there and if we didn’t hit the under on Army vs. Navy last week I swore I wouldn’t pick another one for a while. Well, that game finished 15-0, so we’re back on the horse this week with Air Force at Army. As we explained last week, there’s something about games between two service academies that brings the best and toughest out of these young servicemen, which is why the under is now 37-9-1 in Commander-in-Chief Trophy games since 2005.

Once again, the oddsmakers are not making it easy on us under bettors, putting the number at a measly 38, a hair under last week’s total for Army vs. Navy. Now, that may seem like a tiny number, but consider that the last six matchups between the Falcons and the Black Knights have hit the under, and five of those six games ended with 31 combined points or less.

If there’s any matchup you should feel confident about betting the under on in the NCAA this weekend, it’s this game. Air Force has hit the under in four of five outings this season and the under has hit in the last four meetings between these programs played at Michie Stadium. The Falcons have also hit the under in six of their last seven games overall, their last five straight as a favorite, and their last four following a straight up win. All signs point to another hardfought defensive battle at West Point.

Pick: Game Total Points Under (37) (-111) (Betway)

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17) (-111) (Betway) @ No. 7 Florida Gators

December 19th, 8:00pm, Mercedes-Benz Stadium

When it comes to offensive trios, it doesn’t get any better or more potent than Alabama’s young triplets: QB Mac Jones, RB Najee Harris, and WR DeVonta Smith, who all rank near or at the top of the NCAA at their respective positions.It is true that the Tide haven’t played in a competitive game in over two months and the Gators are a quality team, but Florida’s definitely not playing at their best right now.

The Gators fell to a very subpar LSU team 37-34 at the Swamp last week in a game during which Tigers freshman QB Max Johnson picked them apart without his top target, WR Terrace Marshall. Jones will have his top target (Smith) on Saturday, not to mention a nasty running game led by Harris. As the season has progressed, the Tide have also been getting better and better on the defensive side of the ball, culminating in an eight-sack effort during which they gave up just a field goal to Arkansas last week.

Though the Gators passing attack led by QB Kyle Trask and TE Kyle Pitts could screw us with a backdoor cover, I’d expect the invisibility of the Florida run game to allow Alabama’s pass rush to tee off on Trask and cause him a lot of issues. And if you’re a numbers-driven bettor, stick these in your calculator: the Tide have covered the spread in their last seven games overall, in six straight after allowing an opponent 20 points or less, and in five of their last six meetings with the Gators. Not to mention Florida is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and the favorite has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these programs. Roll Tide.

Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide Point Spread (-17) (-111) (Betway)

We came close to getting in the money last week, but a shameful performance from the U kept us in the red. This week we’re looking for a shootout in the Big Ten Championship, a classic low-scorer at West Point, and the Alabama Crimson Tide to keep on rollin’ against the Florida Gators in the SEC Championship for us to win big on this Conference Championship weekend parlay, the last of the season. Godspeed, and may the odds be ever in our favor.